117
FXUS64 KFWD 242224
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
524 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight through Wednesday/

Scattered showers and storms have developed this afternoon along
the stalled cold front as expected. This activity will drift east,
southeast and dissipate with the loss of surface heating.

Our focus will then turn to the next cold front, slated to move
into North Texas around midnight. This cold front will be stronger
than the last one and will move through the entire forecast area
by midday Wednesday. Showers and storms will accompany the front
with the best chances across the northeast zones overnight/Wednesday
morning. Many locations west of the I-35 corridor may not see
much if any rainfall since the majority of large scale ascent
associated with a deepening upper low will remain to the east. A
few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible, mainly
north of I-20. Storms will end quickly from north to south
Wednesday morning with the passing front and increasing large
scale subsidence behind the departing upper low.

Decreasing clouds Wednesday afternoon will offset weak cold air
advection, allowing temperatures to warm into the 80s. One thing
that will make it feel like a fall cold front will be a breezy
north to northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph.

79

Previous Discussion:
/Through Wednesday/

This morning`s showers and storms have mostly dissipated with the
exception of some very isolated activity across portions of
Central Texas. The remainder of the afternoon will feature warmer
temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 80s. A lull in
convective activity is expected for the next few hours, but a
lingering frontal boundary across our southern zones will serve as
a focus for additional scattered thunderstorm development late
this afternoon. This activity will be confined to far
Central/Southeast and should exit the area near sunset this
evening. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the main
hazards.

We`ll see another brief lull in rain chances this evening, but
this will only be temporary as another shortwave trough will be
digging into the Southern Plains along with its attendant cold
front. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in
Oklahoma late this evening near the front and will continue moving
south towards North Texas overnight. This activity should cross
the Red River sometime after midnight and will continue south
through much of the forecast area through Wednesday morning. While
the potential for severe thunderstorms is low, adequate elevated
instability and deep layer shear will support at least an isolated
threat for a severe storm or two, mainly near and north of the
I-20 corridor. The main hazards will be hail and damaging wind
gusts.

Rain chances will end from north to south Wednesday morning, with
all activity exiting the area by mid to late morning. Winds will
shift out of the northeast behind the front near 10-15 mph. As a
result, cooler temperatures can be expected Wednesday afternoon
with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 225 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024/
Update:

No major changes were made with this latest forecast update other
than to incorporate the latest data from both deterministic and
ensemble guidance. Fall-like weather conditions will continue
through the rest of the week into this weekend, with most of the
area remaining rain-free. There may be some wrap around showers
across our northeastern zones on Friday, but otherwise expect
mostly sunny skies with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. For
more details, please see the previous discussion down below.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Wednesday Night Onward/

Seasonable, rain-free conditions are expected at the start of the
extended forecast period as North and Central Texas remains
situated on the backside of an upper level low. Highs Thursday
will be quite similar to Wednesday`s, topping out in the low to
mid 80s.

Conditions will change slightly as the region will be under the
influence of the upper level low retrograding further west Friday.
As PTC9 moves inland and tracks around the upper low before
becoming absorbed into its flow, wrap around moisture will be sent
southward into the region, promoting low rain chances (20%)
across the northeast Friday. Other than the low rain chances,
slightly breezy conditions are expected as a result of this
system, with peak wind gusts near 25 mph likely both Friday and
Saturday.

This upper level system will gradually shift eastward this weekend
while ridging remains situated to the west. Increasing heights
aloft will aid in warming surface temperatures, with mid and upper
80s anticipated Sunday and into early next week. Overnight lows
will remain in the upper 50s to mid 60s throughout the period.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

A few storms will linger across Central Texas and the Big Country
through sunset. Otherwise, VFR will continue at all TAF sites
this evening with few to scattered Cu. A cold front will enter
into North Texas around midnight, reaching the Metroplex TAF sites
around 08Z. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the cold
front but it does appear the best coverage of storms will be east
of I-35 and north of I-20, where the large scale lift associated
with a deepening upper low will be the strongest. We will maintain
a TEMPO group for storms at the Metroplex TAF sites between 08Z
and 12Z. Lower storm chances are expected across Waco with the
passage of the front but there could be some storms in the
vicinity of the terminal between 11Z and 14Z.

A light south to southwest wind this evening will turn to the
north/northeast quickly behind the front. Post-frontal wind speeds
will increase between 8 and 13 knots along with occasional gusts
near 20 knots.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  81  64  83  63 /  70  30   0   0   5
Waco                67  84  61  84  59 /  40  50   0   0   5
Paris               63  81  59  82  59 /  60  10   0   5  10
Denton              64  81  59  83  59 /  70  20   0   0   5
McKinney            65  83  60  83  60 /  70  20   0   0   5
Dallas              67  81  64  84  62 /  70  30   0   0   5
Terrell             65  83  60  84  60 /  60  40   0   0   5
Corsicana           68  84  62  85  62 /  60  50   0   0   5
Temple              67  86  61  86  59 /  20  40   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       65  81  59  83  58 /  60  20   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$