324
FXUS64 KFWD 161037
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
537 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Overnight convection has been sustained farther east than expected
into the Big Country by a weak shortwave trough and strengthening
low-level jet. However, this activity is still expected to
dissipate before encroaching on the western border of our forecast
area this morning. Slim chances for isolated showers exist across
our southeast zones this afternoon, but these chances remain too
low to formally include in the forecast. Greater rain chances will
arrive for portions of the area on Monday as tropical moisture
pivots northward into Central and East Texas.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/Through Monday/

A weakness in mid-level heights above the Texas Gulf Coast and
attendant strengthening low-level southerly flow will allow
increasing moisture content to stream northward into the eastern
half of the state over the next 48 hours. This will eventually
culminate in the return of rain chances to portions of the area
heading into the workweek. Until then, a seasonably hot June day
is in store to end the weekend with highs in the mid 90s. A decent
daytime southeasterly breeze of 10-20 mph along with a handful of
fair weather cumulus will offer mild relief from mid 90s
temperatures and similar heat index values. A couple of isolated
showers cannot be completely ruled out across our southeast and
east zones during peak heating, but this potential is too low to
include in the public forecast. That potential will change heading
into Monday however, as greater low-level moisture content
spreads northward. Some morning stratus is likely to begin the
day, with greater coverage of showers and some isolated
thunderstorms arriving from the southeast later in the morning.
Some of this shallow convection will spread northwestward towards
the DFW area by the afternoon, with rain chances of 20-30%. While
no severe weather is expected, any convective activity will be
capable of brief very heavy downpours in the presence of rich
moisture content. An attendant increase in cloud cover will aid in
holding Monday afternoon`s highs to the lower 90s, with readings
likely only reaching the upper 80s across our southeast.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 331 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/
/Monday Night Onward/

In Summary: A tropical wave extending from East Texas to the
western Gulf will provide increasing rain chances as it moves
slowly west-northwest across Central-South Texas and northern
Mexico through the midweek period.


Any lingering showers from Monday will dissipate around sunset,
with redevelopment of scattered showers and isolated storms
expected Tuesday afternoon. Similar to Monday, Tuesday`s
convection will be limited to East and Central Texas where the
better moisture will be.

A more significant surge of tropical moisture will occur on
Wednesday (when the highest POPs will likely be) as the system
gets a little better organized. Fortunately the system will
simultaneously be moving inland, which should hinder any further
intensification. Regardless of the intensity of the wave, a slug
of 2.25" PWATs will enter Central Texas on Wednesday, with the
nose of 2-inch PWATs reaching as far north as the Red River. The
better rain chances will be across Central and South Texas where
the deepest tropical moisture will exist. Scattered showers and
occasional thunderstorms should still extend northward to the
I-20 corridor, with more isolated activity along the Red River.

Localized flooding is a possibility where any training showers or
storms may occur. A widespread flood threat is not expected
across the CWA at this time, as convection should remain mostly
isolated to scattered in nature. In fact, the latest probabilities
of receiving 3 or more inches of rain in a 72 hour period are at
or below 20 percent area-wide. That being said, a few of the
Central Texas zones may end up with a higher rainfall forecast if
the system takes a more northerly track, so we will need to keep
an eye on that.

Either way, precipitation will end from east to west on Thursday
as the easterly wave accelerates west across Mexico. Subsidence in
the wake of the system will bring a return to seasonably warm and
rain-free weather for Friday and Saturday, with the possible exception
of the far southeast counties where an isolated seabreeze storm
may reach before dissipating. A second tropical wave to the south
and a weak front entering from the north may bring additional
rain chances next week to begin the final week of June.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/

VFR and southeast winds around 10 kts will prevail today and
tonight, with occasional gusts near 20 kts during the daytime.
MVFR stratus is expected to remain south of the TAF sites this
morning, but greater chances for MVFR cigs will return to most of
the airports heading into Monday morning. These conditions have
been introduced at Waco and in the extended DFW TAF.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  76  93  76  91 /   0   0  20   0  10
Waco                91  75  91  74  89 /   0   0  20   0  20
Paris               92  73  91  72  89 /   5   0  30   5  20
Denton              94  74  93  74  91 /   0   0  20   0  10
McKinney            93  74  91  74  90 /   0   0  20   0  20
Dallas              94  76  93  75  91 /   0   0  20   0  20
Terrell             92  74  91  73  89 /   5   5  20   5  20
Corsicana           94  76  91  75  90 /   5   5  20   5  20
Temple              93  75  92  74  89 /   5   0  20   0  20
Mineral Wells       93  75  93  74  90 /   5   0  10   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$