Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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245 FXUS64 KFWD 170859 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 359 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1200 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024/ /Tonight through Friday Night/ After a brief reprieve from showers and thunderstorms this evening, additional showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to move in from the west overnight. This activity will be moving into relatively stable air currently across North and Central Texas. Therefore, we don`t anticipate much in the way of severe weather, but we can`t rule out a strong storm with gusty winds or small hail. We will maintain the Flood Watch through the night, but most of the rain associated with the activity overnight will likely not cause too many additional flooding problems. Extensive clouds and patchy fog overnight will keep temperatures generally in the 60s. The only exception will be across the far west where clouds will partially clear, allowing for lows to fall into the upper 50s. Friday will be a much less active day than today with most locations not seeing any additional rainfall. However, we will maintain some low chance PoPs (20%-40%) generally north of I-20 due to the passage of a trailing piece of shortwave energy. Although clouds will linger for part of the day Friday, there will still be some afternoon sun, allowing temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Temperatures will steadily fall after sunset Friday under a mostly clear sky. The clearing sky and wet ground will result in patchy fog, especially overnight through Saturday morning. 79 && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /This Weekend Through Next Week/ After our period of unsettled weather, a rain-free interlude will begin this weekend with temperatures and humidity steadily increasing into early next week. A cold front may approach during the middle of the upcoming week, increasing cloud cover and reintroducing rain chances, but seasonally warm temperatures will prevail. The storm system that doused the region yesterday will finally pass east of our meridian Friday night, being replaced by ridging aloft. Positive mid-level height anomalies will prevail into next week, pushing daytime temperatures into the 90s. Combined with rich Gulf moisture, this weekend will remind us that the Texas summer is right around the corner. The heat and humidity will culminate on Tuesday when heat index values will top 100 in many locations. The rather strong early-season subtropical ridging over Mexico that will nose into the Lone Star State will keep the spring storm tracks to our north. However, a midweek shortwave emerging from the Rockies and transiting the Central Plains will manage to deamplify the ridge a bit, potentially sending a cold front in our direction. There is little agreement as to how far equatorward the boundary will penetrate, the eventual evolution perhaps governed by its associated convection. In any event, its proximity should by sufficient to return rain/storm chances to the forecast. However, the current forecast will maintain the plurality of southerly winds and seasonally warm temperatures throughout the upcoming workweek. 25 && .AVIATION... /Issued 1200 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024/ /06Z TAFs/ Ceiling heights will be a challenge to forecast overnight since low level flow is weak and numerous small scale boundaries remain from earlier convection. The decoupled boundary layer is moist so we do anticipate deteriorating flying conditions overnight with weak surface winds. Guidance is in good agreement that VFR ceilings late this evening will lower to MVFR overnight, falling below 1000 ft briefly towards sunrise. Visibilities will also fall towards sunrise in patchy fog. Extensive cloud cover should keep visibilities above 1 mile. Ceilings and visibilities will improve by mid-morning Friday, with all TAF sites seeing VFR conditions by midday. A few showers and storms will approach the TAF sites from the west overnight, but stable air in place across the region will keep coverage too limited to mention in this TAF package. Any showers or storms Friday will likely stay north of the Metroplex terminals, closer to the best large scale lift associated with passing shortwave energy. A north to northwest wind will prevail through Friday afternoon at speeds generally less than 10 knots. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 67 91 70 92 / 20 10 5 0 0 Waco 81 66 88 69 90 / 5 10 5 0 0 Paris 81 63 87 65 90 / 40 20 5 0 0 Denton 81 62 89 68 92 / 30 10 0 0 0 McKinney 81 63 88 68 90 / 30 20 5 0 0 Dallas 84 66 92 70 93 / 20 10 5 0 0 Terrell 82 64 87 67 90 / 20 20 5 0 0 Corsicana 82 66 89 70 92 / 10 10 5 0 0 Temple 82 65 89 68 90 / 5 10 5 0 0 Mineral Wells 81 63 90 68 92 / 20 10 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ101>104-116>122- 130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$