611
FXUS64 KFWD 151055
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
555 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
No significant adjustments were made with this morning`s forecast
update, and a seasonably hot weekend is on tap with temperatures
near normal. Overnight guidance continues to support a slim chance
for a couple of isolated showers in parts of East or Southeast
Texas on Sunday afternoon, with coverage of less than 10%.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/Through Sunday/

A shortwave trough traversing the Central Plains is acting to
break down the synoptic scale upper ridge, and this process will
maintain a relative weakness aloft locally through the weekend.
Despite the absence of strong ridging overhead, little in the way
of forcing will be present to allow for convection, especially
given a dearth of low-level moisture content. These factors will
yield a seasonably hot weekend with highs in the mid 90s and lows
in the low/mid 70s. At most, a percolating cumulus field across
portions of southeast Texas on Sunday afternoon could mature into
very isolated rain shower activity, but these rain chances across
our southeast zones are less than 10%. A southeasterly wind of
10-15 mph will prevail through the entire weekend, offering modest
relief from the summer heat. With fairly aggressive mixing out of
surface dewpoints during the daytime, heat index values will
remain comparable to ambient temperatures.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 243 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024/
/Sunday Night Onward/

Gulf moisture will be on the increase next week as a tropical
wave moves northwest from the Bay of Campeche into northeastern
Mexico and South Texas. Low-end POPs will begin across the
southeast zones Monday afternoon as the initial surge of tropical
moisture arrives. Rain chances will spread a little farther
inland each day through Wednesday as the disturbances itself moves
north and west, and a second moisture surge arrives. Central
Texas will lie on the northern fringe of the system and is where
our better rain chances will be, though isolated showers and
storms will likely spread to and north of the I-20 corridor by
Tuesday, and to the Red River by Wednesday. Locally heavy rain
would be the primary concern in any thunderstorm, but the isolated
to scattered nature of the convection should mitigate the overall
flood threat. Individual cells will also move at a pretty good
pace, particularly Wednesday when southeast flow will be strongest
and storm motions should end up being northwest at 30+ MPH.

The tropical system will turn west and accelerate across Mexico on
Thursday. Diurnally driven convection will be possible for one
more day with isolated rain showers lingering into Thursday night.
The ridge will re-strengthen overhead on Friday, briefly shutting
off rain chances and increasing temperatures once again. More rain
chances may arrive next weekend, however, as the ridge weakens due
to a mid latitude trough sweeping through the Plains.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/

VFR and southeast winds of 8-12 kts will prevail through the
period, with a few higher daytime gusts of 15-20 kts. MVFR
stratus intrusions both this morning and again Sunday morning are
expected to remain well south and east of the TAF sites.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  76  95  76  93 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                92  73  92  75  92 /   0   0   5   0  10
Paris               92  72  93  73  89 /   0   0   5   0  20
Denton              95  74  95  73  92 /   0   0   0   0   5
McKinney            94  73  93  73  90 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dallas              95  76  94  76  92 /   0   0   0   0  10
Terrell             93  72  93  73  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
Corsicana           94  74  94  75  90 /   0   0   5   0  20
Temple              93  72  93  74  92 /   0   0   5   0  10
Mineral Wells       94  74  95  74  93 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$