Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
053 FXUS64 KFWD 061834 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 134 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally moderate to heavy rain will keep the flash flooding concerns the rest of the afternoon mainly along and west of I-35 and south of I-20. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday through Wednesday, especially across North Texas. - Drier and hotter weather is expected Thursday into the weekend with heat index up to 107 possible. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Monday Night/ Our region will remain in this active weather the rest of the afternoon with showers and thunderstorms impacting areas mainly along and west of I-35. Locally moderate to heavy rain will continue keep the threat for flash flooding, especially in the areas under the Flood Watch. While soils are less saturated in the areas outside of the watch, there`s still a non-zero flood threat given these slow moving showers/storms. Additional 1-3 inches are likely in a few spots through early this evening. The weak disturbance responsible for this active pattern will continue to move south this evening shifting the bulk of the precipitation to the south/southwest. But the overall thinking is that most of the rain will diminish this evening leaving us mostly dry overnight. Another round of showers and storms are expected tomorrow. Unlike the last couple of days, most of the high-res guidance keeps the coverage of the precipitation fairly scattered. Given how moist the airmass will still be, any weak source of lift will be sufficient for showers to develop especially in the afternoon. While rainfall totals will be lower than today`s, we can`t rule out a few instances of flash flooding across portions of western Central TX due to the very saturated soils. Otherwise, Monday`s highs will be a few degrees warmer due to less cloud coverage and widespread rain expected. Sanchez && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Tuesday through Next Weekend/ Unfortunately, the rain is not over for us yet as we will keep rain chances across our area until Wednesday. The north/northwest pattern aloft will keep sending shortwaves southward resulting in more scattered showers and storms Tuesday and Wednesday. Coverage will remain around 20-40% as the activity moves from Oklahoma and shift southward during the day. Temperatures will remain at or below normal where rain or cloud coverage is more persistent. Otherwise, highs will be in the lower 90s. Extended guidance continues to show the upper ridge to our west finally making the push eastward during the late week period with drier and warmer weather for us. Temperatures will warm back into the mid to upper 90s by mid-week with heat indices in the 98-107 range. Sanchez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ Concerns...rain with iso lightning and low ceilings. Spotty MVFR ceilings may persist for a few hours before VFR returns and continues through the end of the period. Scattered showers and isolated storms will continue to impact areas mainly west of I-35 the rest of the afternoon but the potential for TS directly at the TAF sites remains low (less than 20%). Most of the precipitation will diminish by 00Z with dry weather expected overnight. For tomorrow, there could be another round of scattered convection in the afternoon, but confidence in timing/placement remains too low to add VCTS at this time. Otherwise, south winds will prevail less than 12 kts. Sanchez && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Limited spotter activation may be requested across Central Texas due to the potential for flooding today. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 91 76 91 75 / 10 20 5 30 20 Waco 73 89 74 89 73 / 10 20 0 10 10 Paris 73 92 73 90 73 / 5 20 5 40 20 Denton 73 91 74 92 73 / 10 30 5 30 20 McKinney 74 91 75 91 74 / 10 20 5 30 20 Dallas 76 91 76 93 76 / 10 20 5 30 20 Terrell 73 91 74 91 74 / 5 20 5 30 20 Corsicana 74 91 75 92 74 / 5 20 5 20 10 Temple 72 89 73 90 72 / 20 20 0 10 10 Mineral Wells 72 89 73 91 73 / 10 30 5 30 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ130>133-141>145- 156>159. && $$