483
FXUS64 KFWD 010713
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
213 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday Morning/

Storms are currently straddling the Red River as an outflow
boundary pushes south into North Texas. While this will greatly
limit the severe weather potential, a few storms could be strong
to marginally severe. The main concerns would be hail and gusty
winds, though any opportunity for this will be brief. That is due
to the aforementioned boundary that is undercutting their warm
inflow, limiting their severe potential. These should weaken over
the next few hours before dissipating entirely before sunrise.

Our attention then turns to our next round of showers and
thunderstorms that will start Wednesday afternoon and evening
through the overnight hours into Thursday morning. This will be
our best opportunity for scattered to more widespread severe
weather as the latest hi-res guidance continues to reveal
convective activity developing, then rapidly growing upscale into
an MCS as it moves into our area. Our local storm environment will
be conducive for severe weather in the form of large hail and
damaging winds. Favorable deep layer shear, steep lapse rates, and
instability will all be available for storms to work with as they
develop and evolve. There is also low-end potential for
tornadogenesis while storms remain more discrete and this
potential will continue to exist should they develop into an
organized linear structure through the overnight hours. That all
being said, be sure to play close attention to the forecast
through tomorrow afternoon and evening into Thursday.

In addition to our severe weather potential is our flash flooding
concerns for locations mainly along and south of I-20 where
already saturated soils exist. Several waves of convective
activity Wednesday into Thursday afternoon could reaggravate
recent flooding issues. The latest 6-hour precipitation
probabilities courtesy of the HREF show a medium chance (30-50%)
of greater than 3 inches of rainfall for most of Central Texas.
This can be used as a proxy for gauging flooding concerns, and
confidence is increasing due to run to run consistency. Moreover,
about 10% of the area could receive upwards of 5 inches of rain
in a 6-hour span. The overall environment will be supportive of
flash flooding on top of our antecedent conditions. Because of
this,a Flood Watch is now being considered across this area
through Thursday afternoon and will likely be issued before the
morning update.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 234 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/
/Wednesday Night and Beyond/

Bottom Line: An unsettled weather pattern will lead to periodic
chances for thunderstorms through the end of the week. Severe
weather and heavy rainfall will be possible at times, potentially
leading to additional flooding concerns.

Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop off a sharpening
dryline across West Texas late Wednesday afternoon and gradually
progress east toward North and Central Texas late Wednesday
evening into Wednesday night. Ascent associated with a passing
shortwave and rich moisture transport on the nose of a 25-35 kt
low-level jet will likely sustain this convection as it enters our
area and may lead to additional thunderstorm development ahead of
the primary cluster of thunderstorms during the overnight hours.
Abundant moisture marked by surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and
lower 70s and PWATs in the 1.7-1.9" range (approaching
climatological maxima) will support heavy rainfall as this
activity increases in coverage Wednesday night. 20-30 kt storm
motions should be progressive enough to keep a more widespread
flood event from occurring. However, if there are continuous
signals for back-building and/or training thunderstorms in the
newer high-resolution guidance, the threat for localized flash
flooding may increase rapidly, especially with region-wide
saturated soils from the recent rainfall. As of now, a widespread
0.5"-1.5" seems likely with a 10-20% chance for 3+" through
Thursday morning, primarily along/south of I-20 and along/east of
I-35. 20-30kts of effective bulk shear will keep the threat for
widespread severe weather on the low end, but 2000-2500 J/kg
MLCAPE will support at least a marginal threat for severe hail in
a few of the stronger cells.

Most of this activity will push into East Texas by late Thursday
morning leading to a relative lull in thunderstorm activity for
much of Thursday. Additional chances for thunderstorms will
arrive late Thursday into Friday as a cold front approaches from
the north. The spatial coverage of convection late Thursday into
Friday will depend on the southern extent of the frontal passage.
A majority of medium-range guidance keeps the frontal boundary
near the Red River, subsequently keeping the better rain chances
along/north of I-20. Another round of showers and thunderstorms
seems possible over the weekend, with guidance highlighting the
potential for a more potent shortwave entering the Southern Plains
in the Saturday-Sunday timeframe. There are still timing and
location discrepancies, so keep an eye on the forecast through the
week!

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR/IFR Ceilings Through Wednesday Afternoon.

VFR conditions currently prevail across all TAF sites but
ceilings will begin to fall as we move through the morning hours
on Wednesday. MVFR will creep northward as another stratus
intrusion takes over North and Central Texas. These will reach
Waco around 08-09z before making it to the D10 terminals around
11-12z this morning. There is a low chance (20-30%) for
intermittent IFR ceilings through the morning across the D10, with
better chances for IFR across Waco. Our other concern is the
outflow boundary that is currently moving south toward the D10
terminals from the storms along the Red River. While this is not
currently expected to impact the TAF sites, additional
thunderstorm development along this boundary could increase the
likelihood in brief northerly winds within the next several hours.

Ceilings will improve through the afternoon hours, though
conditions will be worth watching as convective activity
increases through tomorrow evening. Details will be further
refined regarding this thunderstorm potential in future TAF
issuances.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    84  67  81  69  81 /  20  70  80  50  30
Waco                83  67  80  69  80 /  30  70  70  40  30
Paris               84  66  77  66  81 /  20  60  80  70  40
Denton              83  66  80  67  81 /  20  70  70  50  30
McKinney            83  67  79  67  81 /  20  70  80  50  30
Dallas              85  67  81  69  83 /  20  80  80  50  30
Terrell             84  67  78  67  81 /  20  80  90  50  30
Corsicana           85  68  80  69  82 /  20  80  80  40  30
Temple              82  67  80  69  82 /  40  60  60  30  20
Mineral Wells       82  67  83  66  82 /  20  70  60  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$