053
FXUS64 KFWD 220554
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1254 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Night/

Isolated convection from earlier this evening has now dissipated
allowing for a remaining quiet and humid overnight. Another round
of low-level stratus will surge northward later tonight
overspreading much of Central Texas and portions of North Texas
before sunrise Wednesday morning.

Active weather is expected to begin by late Wednesday morning into
Wednesday night across much of the region. Shortwave impulses in
the southwest flow aloft will aid in the development of multiple
rounds of thunderstorms along a couple surface features. A cold
front currently pushing into northern Oklahoma will approach our
Red River counties by 9-11am Wednesday morning. Southward
propagating convection will likely already be ongoing along this
frontal boundary as it enters our forecast area. The front will
interact with an extremely moist and unstable airmass as it slowly
sags south of the Red River by midday Wednesday. Long, straight
hodographs will favor clusters of supercells along and behind this
frontal boundary with primarily a very large hail threat. As we
move into Wednesday afternoon, daytime heating ahead of the front
will likely allow for the development of more scattered
thunderstorms. Another area of potential convective initiation
later in the day will reside near the cold front/dryline
intersection in the San Angelo area where recent CAM guidance is
highlighting thunderstorm development. Large hail and damaging
wind gusts will the be the primary hazards with any storms south
of the frontal boundary. If the front stalls or slows somewhere
across North Texas, boundary interactions and locally backed
surface flow will increase effective SRH and subsequently the
tornado threat. However, if storm interactions lead to rather
substantial cold pool development and outflow reinforces the
southward progression of the frontal boundary, we may see a
quicker transition to more of an MCS type situation with primarily
a damaging wind threat by Wednesday evening.

With plenty of elevated instability behind the outflow/frontal
boundary, isolated to scattered storms may continue to develop
across portions of North Texas into Wednesday evening and the
early overnight as the bulk of thunderstorm activity enters
Central and Southeast Texas. Impressive PWATs in the 1.9-2.1"
range highlight the potential for heavy rainfall Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Mean flow parallel to the frontal
boundary would also suggest a potential for training thunderstorms
increasing the threat for localized flash flooding across
portions of North and Central Texas. Regional models and high-
resolution CAMs are currently struggling to pinpoint where this
band or two of heavier rainfall may occur (highly dependent on the
location of the frontal boundary and any outflow boundaries).
However, the 00Z HREF highlights the greatest potential for
localized 4-5" totals generally south of an Eastland-Paris line
and north of a Lampasas-Palestine line. The localized nature of
this threat is keeping us from issuing a Flood Watch now, but we
will take a look at the suite of 06Z guidance later tonight to
reassess the need for and placement of a Flood Watch in the
morning forecast package.

The bulk of this activity should push east and southeast of our
forecast area by midnight Wednesday night. Additional chances for
storms will arrive on Thursday.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 230 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024/
Update:
The previous long term forecast remains largely unchanged. We`ll
have another potential for severe weather on Thursday, which is
detailed in the previous discussion below. Several additional
chances for showers and storms are expected through early next
week, with perhaps additional opportunities for severe weather
both Friday and Saturday. Stay weather-aware, especially if you
have any outdoor plans over the holiday weekend. Additionally,
with the heat and humidity cranking up this weekend, ensure you
practice heat safety. Wear light-colored clothing, drink hydrating
fluids, and take frequent breaks in an air-conditioned space.

Barnes

Previous Discussion:
/Wednesday Onward/

A cold front will sag south into North Texas on Wednesday as a
shortwave sweeps across the Plains. A few storm clusters may be
ongoing around daybreak Wednesday as the front crosses the Red
River, with activity dissipating mid to late morning as the low
level jet mixes out. The front will likely stall somewhere between
I-20 and the Red River, providing focus for thunderstorm
development Wednesday afternoon as the right entrance region of a
90kt jet approaches from the west. Strong flow aloft (and the
resulting deep layer shear) combined with good instability will
lead to some of these storm becoming severe with large hail and
damaging winds both possible. The presence of the surface front
may also enhance the tornado threat at times, though a persistent
warm layer at 850 to 700mb will hopefully mitigate tornado
development.

Thunderstorms (some severe) will continue into Wednesday evening,
with the best storm chances being along and north of I-20 near
the surface front. PWats near 2 inches will also allow for locally
heavy rain in thunderstorms, and flooding may become an issue
where any training convection may occur. Storms will begin to wind
down around midnight Wednesday night, with activity eventually
dissipating during the overnight hours.

Thunderstorms will redevelop on Thursday as a shortwave trough
passes overhead, with the surface boundary (along with other
possible mesoscale boundaries from Wednesday convection) providing
a focus for development. Shear and instability will be more than
sufficient for severe thunderstorms, with large hail, damaging
winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes possible. Some deterministic
guidance in fact indicates a higher tornado threat for Thursday,
but I would like to see better resolution guidance in the form of
convection allowing models (which will arrive later today through
Wednesday) before ramping up the tornado messaging. The
persistent warm layer could also work against tornado development.
In any case storms will continue into Thursday evening, with the
best rain chances again being along and north of I-20 near the
surface boundary. That being said, any southward shift in the
front itself or in any mesoscale boundary could shift the better
storm chances southward into Central Texas.

Activity will dissipate overnight Thursday night, giving way to a
hot and humid Friday. Dewpoints in the lower 70s and highs in the
lower to middle 90s will yield 100+ degree heat indices Friday
afternoon, with the front having lifted well north of the Red
River by then. The heat will continue through the weekend, with
parts of Central Texas possibly reaching Heat Advisory criteria on
Saturday.

There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms Friday and
Saturday afternoons associated with the dryline. Though storm
coverage may remain isolated, each storm which manages to develop
would likely become severe. A deepening low over the Great Lakes
will send a cold front southward into the region once again on
Monday, providing some relief from the heat along with a slight
chance of storms for Memorial Day. At this time, it looks like the
front will push through the entire region, leading to warm but
drier weather next Tuesday through the midweek period of next
week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

MVFR cigs are currently pushing into Central Texas and should
reach KACT ~08Z and the D10 terminals ~10Z before lifting and
scattering out by mid-morning. It is possible that cigs remain SCT
across the western portions of D10 through the morning. Widespread
thunderstorms are expected to develop as early as 17Z-18Z
Wednesday, but will become more likely later in the afternoon and
evening. We will start VCTS at the D10 terminals at 18Z with a
TEMPO for TSRA from 20Z-24Z. Storms that impact the D10 airspace
may be strong to severe with threats for large hail, damaging
winds, and lightning.

Langfeld

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  87  74  94  74 /  50  40  20   5  20
Waco                73  88  74  92  73 /  60  20  10  10  20
Paris               68  83  70  89  69 /  60  50  40  10  30
Denton              69  86  71  93  70 /  50  40  20   5  20
McKinney            70  85  73  92  71 /  50  40  20   5  20
Dallas              72  87  73  94  73 /  50  40  20   5  20
Terrell             70  86  73  91  71 /  50  30  20   5  20
Corsicana           74  89  75  93  75 /  60  20  10  10  20
Temple              73  88  74  93  73 /  40  20   5  10  20
Mineral Wells       70  87  73  95  70 /  40  40  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$