Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
276 FXUS64 KFWD 121826 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 126 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Pockets of heavy rain will increase the potential for Flash Flooding this afternoon through tomorrow evening with the Flood Watch. - Drier and hotter weather is expected Tuesday through the end of the week with heat index readings up to 105 possible. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today and Tomorrow/ There will be a threat for flooding today, tonight and tomorrow across portions of North and Central Texas. A Flood Watch is in effect through tomorrow evening as pockets of 4-5 inches of rain will be possible within the watch area. The environment atop North and Central Texas is characterized by anomalously high moisture content that will be tapped into over the next 24-36 hours. Precipitable water content was sampled at 1.9" this morning, placing it above the 90th percentile for July 12th. As a shortwave and weak front inch closer to our region, instability will continue to increase, maxing out near 2000 J/Kg in the next couple of hours. This should lead to a blossoming of thunderstorm activity, especially in North Texas. With weak steering flow in place, environmental shear will remain minimal, minimizing the threat for severe storms. Having said that, a few strong storms capable of gusty winds cannot be ruled out. Heading into the evening hours, the shortwave will continue to slowly shift southeastward with a vorticity max likely across the western Central Texas. Dynamic cooling aloft will likely enhance instability and lead to additional heavy rainfall during the overnight hours. Short-range models continue to advertise localized pockets of 4-5 inches of rain somewhere along and south of I-20 through the overnight period. Confidence in the location of each individual bullseye remains low, however, there was enough confidence to expand the watch eastward across Central Texas. All areas along and west of I-35 should remain vigilant for night-time flooding. By sunrise tomorrow, the shortwave will continue to slowly shift east across North and Central Texas. Scattered showers and isolated storms will be ongoing with much of the region covered in a shroud of clouds. A relative minimum in precipitation coverage is expected tomorrow morning before precipitation coverage increases in the afternoon once again. With additional bouts of heavy rain possible during the afternoon hours, there will continue to be a threat for flash flooding should a storm remain stationary over a single location. With southerly flow Sunday night and troughing just to our west, the potential for showers and isolated storms will remain in place through Sunday night. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Monday Onward/ The potential for rain will linger through the day on Monday as the upper trough begins to drift eastward. By Tuesday, mid-level heights will begin to increase as the ridge across the SE United States expands towards our region. This should limit precipitation chances through the rest of the week. A slight warming trend is expected the latter half of the week as temperatures rise into the mid and upper 90s. Heat index values may approach 105 by next weekend. Hernandez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ After a break from earlier precipitation, additional showers are in the process of developing across North and Central Texas. The main focus for thunderstorms will be across UKW this afternoon thanks to a nearly stationary cold front. Ahead of the front, pop- up thunderstorms will continue to be possible through around 22Z. There is low confidence in a round of thunderstorms impacting D10 this evening as this will be highly dependent on the evolution of thunderstorms near KSPS. For now, a PROB30 will continue to be advertised, however, if confidence increases in TSRA at any of the North Texas airports, expect changes to the TAFs as necessary. Overnight, lingering showers will be possible, however, confidence in the location and timing remain low. There will be an increasing potential for MVFR to develop mainly across KACT closer to sunrise and last through the late morning hours. Afternoon storms will once again develop tomorrow, however, the highest coverage should remain outside of the TAF sites. Tomorrow`s rain chances will continue to be assessed and may be included in subsequent TAF issuances if necessary. Hernandez && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Limited spotter activation may be requested this evening and tonight within the Flood Watch. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 87 73 90 75 / 50 50 30 30 5 Waco 74 88 73 90 74 / 20 50 20 10 0 Paris 72 86 71 88 73 / 60 50 40 40 5 Denton 72 87 72 89 74 / 60 60 40 40 5 McKinney 74 87 73 89 75 / 50 50 40 40 5 Dallas 74 87 73 91 75 / 50 50 30 30 5 Terrell 74 88 73 90 74 / 40 50 30 30 5 Corsicana 75 90 74 93 75 / 30 50 20 20 0 Temple 74 90 73 92 73 / 20 50 20 10 0 Mineral Wells 71 87 71 91 73 / 60 60 40 40 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Sunday evening for TXZ091>094-100>104- 115>119-129>134-141>145-156>160-174. && $$