Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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624 FXUS64 KFWD 221609 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /This afternoon through Tonight/ Active weather is expected over the next 48 hours, but we will highlight the fist 18 to 24 hours in this portion of the discussion. Very humid air is currently in place across the entire region this morning with middle and upper 70s dew points. The 12Z sounding showed a very unstable and largely uncapped environment which will support thunderstorms. The other two ingredients necessary for strong to severe storms are lift and shear and we already have enough deep layer shear to support long-lived updrafts. Large scale lift will be provided by subtle shortwave energy moving through southwest flow aloft. However, the more important and much stronger forcing for ascent will accompany a southward moving cold front. The front is currently sliding through the northwest zones and will continue its southward progression through the afternoon. Storms will develop along the front with most CAMs showing initiation across North Texas around noon and based on the current radar, that may be a bit slow. Once the first storms develop, the interaction of outflow boundaries with the favorable storm environment will result in a combination of storm modes with a potential for discrete supercells as well as storm clusters. All modes of severe weather will be possible this afternoon with large hail being the primary hazard. However, any mesoscale induced, backed, low level flow could result in a brief tornado or two. Storms may become more organized into a complex late this afternoon and evening with mergers from storm moving off of the dryline west of the forecast area. Our Central Texas counties will be the most likely place for this to occur and should it happen, the damaging wind threat will increase. Storm chances will decrease overnight with the exiting shortwave, but the front and multiple outflows will linger across the region, becoming a focus for additional storms on Thursday (as highlighted in the long term discussion). Since moisture will not be confined to just the boundary layer, many storms will be heavy rain producers. The good news is that steering flow should keep storms moving, but there will be potential for brief but heavy downpours and storm training. Therefore, flooding will be possible and with more storms expected Thursday, we will keep a Flood Watch in effect for much of the forecast area. Clouds and rain-cooled air will keep afternoon highs generally in the 80s, except for some lower 90s across Central Texas. High humidity will keep overnight lows mainly in the 70s, except for near the Red River where the post-frontal air will be slightly drier and cooler. 79 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 307 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ /Thursday Onward/ A meandering surface front and a dryline will provide focus for thunderstorm development again on Thursday as a modest shortwave trough passes overhead. Recent CAM guidance has indicated that showers and storms may begin developing Thursday morning across Central Texas as forcing for ascent strengthens in advance of the disturbance, likely on the nose of a strong theta-e ridge. Morning showers and storms would likely be elevated in nature, making hail the main concern in any strong or severe storm. Convection would then develop farther north in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries as the atmosphere destabilizes Thursday afternoon. Models have been less aggressive with the Thursday convection compared to previous suites, perhaps a result of the atmosphere being worked over from Wednesday night storms or cloud cover associated with the Thursday morning activity. In addition, a persistent capping inversion around 850mb may also be a mitigating factor. Will keep POPs in the chance to slight chance category for now, with the best chances across Central Texas in the morning and North Texas in the afternoon. Any storm which forms (particularly in the afternoon and evening) could become severe with large hail and damaging winds; and locally heavy rain may also occur. Precipitation will come to an end Thursday night, followed by hot and humid weather on Friday as the front lifts well north of the region. A strong shortwave in the Plains will drag the dryline east to near the I-35 corridor, which may serve as a focus for isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Storm coverage would likely remain low, but a highly unstable airmass and strong flow aloft would allow any storm which forms to once again become severe. The dryline will remain the main focus for development on Saturday afternoon and evening as a stronger shortwave crosses the Southern Plains. A strong cap will be in place, but a few cells will likely break through it and quickly become severe. The best chances for storms on Saturday appears at this time to be along and north of I-20, and in the afternoon and evening hours. A lull in storm chances is then expected on Sunday as subsidence briefly dominates in the wake of the Saturday system. It will remain quite warm with highs ranging from the low 90s in the northeast to the upper 90s across the west. Sunday may end up being the warmest day temperature-wise, but lower dewpoints will be in place compared to Friday and Saturday (when heat indices will reach 100+ across most of the CWA). The next upper level system will drop southeast from Nebraska into Arkansas/Missouri Sunday night and Monday, dragging a cold front south through the entire region. Weak forcing will keep storm chances fairly low and limited to the eastern half of the region. Otherwise, cooler air will arrive on Memorial Day with the cold front, bringing near-normal temperatures to North and Central Texas Monday night through the midweek period of next week. 30 && .AVIATION... .AVIATION... /Issued at 558 AM CDT/ /12Z TAFs/ Intermittent MVFR cigs will persist through at least 14Z-15Z this morning at all terminals before lifting to VFR status. Thunderstorms are expected to develop and move into the vicinity of the D10 airspace after 17Z with the greatest potential for terminal impacts taking place in between 19Z-23Z this afternoon. Impacts for KACT will begin a few hours later. Gusty outflow winds, hail, and heavy rainfall will be the primary hazards with these storms. Surface winds may turn east-northeasterly for a few hours at the D10 terminals behind the outflow. Otherwise, predominately southerly flow at 10-15 kts gusting to 20 kts at times is expected. Langfeld && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 89 73 86 75 94 / 60 50 40 20 5 Waco 90 73 87 75 91 / 40 50 30 10 20 Paris 83 68 83 71 89 / 80 60 50 50 5 Denton 85 70 85 75 92 / 70 50 50 10 5 McKinney 87 70 85 74 91 / 60 50 50 20 5 Dallas 90 73 87 75 94 / 60 50 40 20 5 Terrell 88 70 86 73 91 / 60 50 40 20 5 Corsicana 88 73 89 76 93 / 40 50 30 20 10 Temple 90 74 90 75 92 / 30 40 30 10 20 Mineral Wells 86 70 87 75 93 / 60 40 30 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late Thursday night for TXZ092>095-102>107- 117>123-130>135-141>148-156>161. && $$