Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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792 FXUS64 KFWD 201821 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 121 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Sunday Afternoon/ Weak ridging aloft will continue to keep the weather conditions quiet today and tonight. Temperatures today will range from the upper 80s to mid 90s with gusty southerly winds in place. The ongoing gusts will quickly subside around sunset as the near- surface environment decouples from the faster winds aloft. Tonight, expect low temperatures to be 10-15 degrees above normal with a shroud of clouds moving in from the south. This cloud cover will linger through the morning hours before dissipating early tomorrow morning. An incoming shortwave will nudge the ridge eastward tomorrow as a dryline sharpens in the afternoon. Although the atmosphere will remain fairly capped much of the day, there is a low potential a storm or two develop along the dryline. The dryline should be positioned just west of our area in the afternoon. If a storm does develop, storms should shift northeast. With mixed-layer CAPE over 3000 J/Kg and lapse rates near 8 C/km, any storm would be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Again, the potential for any storm developing is low but non-zero. Afternoon temperatures tomorrow will remain fairly similar to today -- upper 80s in the east to mid 90s west. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 316 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024/ Update: The long term forecast, as detailed below, is still valid and no major changes are needed at this time. We are still thinking the best storm chances this week will accompany a cold front in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame, with a potential for severe storms and heavy rain. 79 Previous Discussion: /Monday Night Through Next Weekend/ Uncomfortably warm and humid conditions are expected into early this upcoming week as upper level ridging and warm air advection persist overtop the region. By Monday night, a longwave trough will have made residence across the western CONUS. A progressive shortwave disturbance will move through the mid-level flow across the Central Plains on Tuesday, effectively shunting the ridge axis further east into the Deep South. As this initial shortwave ejects to our northeast, there is potential for isolated showers and storms near the Red River Tuesday night. Immediately behind the departing shortwave, a secondary shortwave disturbance will swing across the Great Plains overnight into Wednesday and send a cold front southward. This front is progged to make it into our northwestern counties during the day Wednesday, but exactly how far the front will progress is still uncertain at this time. Ensemble and cluster guidance do not have the front making it too far into our CWA before it loses upper support and stalls. The NAM has it well farther south, essentially bisecting the region before stalling. Nonetheless, lift from the front will interact with moisture and instability, allowing for showers and storms along and ahead of the front as it moves south. Instability, shear, and mid- level lapse rates will be enough to promote strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Another shortwave is expected to move into the Southern Plains on Thursday, forcing the front to regress northward as a warm front. The lift from this passing shortwave will allow for another blossoming of storms, some strong to severe, over the afternoon and evening hours. Storm chances will come to an end on Friday as the source of lift skirts away to the east/northeast. However, on-and-off isolated storm chances will continue to be possible through the weekend as additional mid-level impulses move through the overall flow. The heat will once again ramp up through the weekend with highs in the 90s and dewpoints remaining in the 60 and 70s. Heat indices will be a bit higher than ambient temperatures in response, so make sure to stay aware of outdoor conditions and practice heat safety this upcoming weekend. Prater && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ Concerns...Gusty southerly winds this afternoon. MVFR stratus returns tonight. Gusty southerly winds with mostly clear skies are ongoing at this time and will continue through the rest of this afternoon. Wind speeds continue to range between 10-20 mph with some gusts approaching 30 mph. As we approach sunset today, expect wind speeds to gradually subside. Tonight, a stratus intrusion is expected, reducing cloud heights to around 1500 feet AGL. This intrusion will make its way northward through the early morning Tuesday morning hours, impacting all TAF sites across the region. The stratus deck is expected to gradually disperse late in the morning with mid-level clouds remaining in place. There is a potential for an isolated thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon west of the D10 airspace. Given the isolated nature of the storms, impact to air traffic should remain minimal. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 90 75 88 71 / 0 10 10 40 60 Waco 73 92 75 88 72 / 0 5 5 20 30 Paris 69 87 74 86 68 / 0 5 5 50 70 Denton 73 89 72 86 68 / 0 10 10 40 60 McKinney 73 88 74 86 68 / 0 10 10 40 60 Dallas 74 91 76 90 71 / 0 10 5 30 50 Terrell 71 89 75 87 70 / 0 5 5 30 50 Corsicana 74 90 76 89 74 / 0 5 0 20 30 Temple 73 90 75 88 73 / 0 5 0 20 20 Mineral Wells 73 91 73 87 69 / 0 20 10 50 50 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$