518
FXUS64 KFWD 101048
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
548 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
An overall quiet morning is unfolding across North and Central
Texas, with a smattering of low clouds lingering across North
Texas. Upper level cirrus has begun streaming in from the west and
will continue to do so through today. We`re still expecting a low
chance of showers across our southwestern counties this afternoon,
but most should stay dry due to a deep dry layer under the mid-
level cloud base. Guidance continues to highlight tomorrow
afternoon as a better window for rain chances across the region.
Guidance is quite lacking on overall instability for tomorrow,
with the HRRR absolutely not for it. The NAMNest has a bit more
instability, but the question is: is it enough to work with the
abundant shear to promote a stronger storm or two? We`ll need to
watch model trends and environmental observations to see.

Not much has changed from the previous forecast, so the discussion
directly below remains valid.

Prater

Previous Discussion:
/Today through Saturday Afternoon/

With the cold front fully though North and Central Texas, cooler
and drier air will continue to filter in overnight. The front will
continue to move through South Texas as the base of the more
progressive northern longwave trough to our northeast swings
through the Tennessee Valley and into the Carolinas. With the cut-
off low still stagnant to our west, this will cause ridging to
build across the Southern Plains to end out the week. Overall,
subsident air will keep things on the quieter end of the ledge,
aside from a couple of shortwave impulses providing enough
isentropic ascent for isolated rain chances each afternoon.

The first impulse will round the apex of the ridge this afternoon.
Isolated showers are expected to form to our west across the
Edwards Plateau and move eastward over our Central Texas counties.
Guidance generally has the activity weakening as it moves across
our area, with the more "robust" reflectivity in our far
southwestern counties. Additionally, forecast soundings show a
deep dry layer under where the rain would fall from (~500-600mb).
This would promote evaporation of much of the rain before it gets
to the ground. Have persisted in only having a mention of 20% PoPs
for our southeast counties, with 10% or less PoPs elsewhere in
Central Texas for today as most will likely stay dry. Afternoon
highs will peak in the 70s to low 80s, which are near to below
normal for this time of year.

On Saturday, the aforementioned cut-off low to our west will de-
amplify into a more open wave trough and begin to move eastward.
While the trough will not impact our short-term sensible weather,
a stronger impulse out ahead of the low will move across the
region and break down the ridge. We`ll have better rain and storm
chances across our western counties over the afternoon hours as
stronger ascent will overspread the region. No severe weather is
expected with this activity, but there looks to be enough elevated
instability for a few lightning strikes.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 239 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/
/Sunday Onward/

Another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms will
materialize for the second half of Mother`s Day weekend and will
continue into Monday to begin the workweek. This will be due to a
deepening upper low and attendant diffuse surface system which
will make eastward progress through the Southern Plains beginning
early Sunday morning. Height falls ahead of this system will
allow more robust southerly flow and northward moisture advection
to occur prior to the arrival of a weak surface cold front and
broad mid-level dynamic ascent. This should culminate in
scattered and mostly disorganized convection beginning Sunday
morning, with coverage increasing through the daytime. Instability
will likely not recover to values supportive of severe weather,
at least not on an organized level. However, a sufficient
parameter space for perhaps a couple of strong storms with mainly
a hail threat could exist, and this would be more likely across
Central Texas where instability should be greatest. In addition,
moderate to heavy rainfall may cause minor flooding issues,
particularly due to already saturated grounds from above average
rainfall over the past several weeks. Localized 24-hour rain
totals of 1-2" are plausible.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue into the daytime
Monday on a more isolated/scattered basis, likely with one final
chance for convective activity along this system`s weak slow-
moving cold front. This boundary will bring slightly drier air to
the region, scouring rain chances to the southeast in the
process. Despite this front`s passage, temperatures on Monday
afternoon will probably be a few degrees warmer than Sunday`s
highs due to less widespread cloud cover and a bit of insolation
returning late in the day. With upper-level shortwave ridging
following on the heels of the departing trough, dry and warmer
weather will prevail on Tuesday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will resume Wednesday and
Thursday next week as yet another strong shortwave deepens over
the Central High Plains. This may bring a more traditional and
favorable setup for severe convection to portions of the area with
active dryline and cold front boundaries to our north and west.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Multiple layers of VFR clouds are moving across the region, mainly
over D10 this morning. VFR is expected to prevail at all TAF sites
through the period. Northerly winds will increase through the
afternoon to 10-15 kts with slightly higher gusts, veering
slightly at times to the northeast. Very low chances for rain
still exist at ACT, but are too uncertain and isolated to include
in the TAF. Expect winds to decrease with the loss of daytime
heating to less than 10 kts through the overnight hours. Near
daybreak, winds will have veered further east to around 090,
varying between ENE and ESE through the end of the 30 hour period.
This is included in KDFW`s TAF.

Additional chances for showers and storms are expected Saturday
afternoon and will be discussed in further issuances.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  62  78  63  73 /   0   5   5  30  60
Waco                80  62  77  63  72 /  10  10  20  30  80
Paris               80  57  80  60  75 /   0   5   5  10  40
Denton              79  58  77  59  72 /   0  10   5  30  60
McKinney            80  59  78  61  73 /   0   5   5  20  60
Dallas              82  63  79  62  74 /   0   5   5  30  60
Terrell             80  59  77  62  73 /   0   5   5  20  60
Corsicana           82  62  78  64  75 /   5   5   5  30  70
Temple              80  62  77  63  74 /  20  10  20  30  80
Mineral Wells       79  60  75  60  71 /   5  10  20  40  80

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$