Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
341 FXUS64 KFWD 131819 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 119 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms will be capable of producing localized additional heavy rainfall and flash flooding later this afternoon and early this evening. A Flood Watch remains in effect for much of North and Central Texas through 7 PM. - Drier and hotter weather is expected Tuesday through the end of the week with heat index readings up to 105 possible. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /This afternoon through Monday/ Following a lull in activity through much of the morning, convection has blossomed once again across the Central Texas counties in association with an MCV centered near San Saba County. This feature will track northeastward within a region of high PW and healthy instability, resulting in widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage roughly south of a Goldthwaite to Waxahachie to Sulphur Springs line. Additional spurts of heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding are likely, hence the continuation of the Flood Watch through 7 pm (and its eastern expansion as well). Farther north, believe residual stability will limit coverage across the Metroplex and the counties west through north of DFW, though some isolated cells (and even some brief heavy rain) are certainly not out of the question. The MCV proper should be dissipating or shifting east of the area by this evening, and PoPs as a result should be limited. However, a synoptic-scale mid level trough will persist over Eastern North Texas and Oklahoma overnight and Monday. With this feature loitering in the area, do expect additional scattered mainly afternoon and early evening convection to redevelop, predominately east of I-35. The overall trend of coverage should be less than that of previous days, and the flash flood threat should accordingly decrease. The region will "enjoy" one more day of daytime temperatures below seasonal norms, before summer makes its inevitable return through the week. Expect afternoon highs predominately in the 80s across the area, with a few lower 90s possible in far western North Texas. Bradshaw && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Tuesday through Sunday/ Summer warmth will find its way back to Texas through the course of the coming week, though temperatures will be restrained from reaching the century mark for the time being. The persistent mid level trough which has lingered over the Southern Plains for the past few days will slide a bit further east on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the majority of our forecast area on the drier, subsident western side of this feature. Will continue with low PoPs across our eastern Red River counties Tuesday, but this will pretty much end our opportunity for organized rainfall for the next week or so. A mid level ridge of high pressure over the Southeast U.S. will slowly strengthen and broaden its span to include eastern Texas from Wednesday into next weekend. Daytime highs will climb into the mid and upper 90s through the period. Ample humidity will persist across the region, and afternoon heat indices will push into the 100-104 degree range from the latter half of the week through the weekend. These values should remain just below advisory thresholds, but those spending time outside should follow heat safety recommendations. Bradshaw && .AVIATION... /Issued 1249 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025/ /18Z TAFs/ The environment over much of North Texas, including D10, has remained fairly stable, owing to substantial mid and high level cloudiness leftover from earlier rains. An area of renewed convection is developing across Central Texas early this afternoon, and the north edge of this shield should deposit isolated thunderstorms into parts of D10 by 23z, if not a bit earlier. Believe the window for any storms in the Metroplex area will be limited to the 23z-03z period, before the loss of daytime heating shuts down most of the activity. In addition, much of this current convection is related to an mesocale convective vortex (MCV) centered near San Saba. This feature should track east northeast through 00z, limiting the amount of activity that bleeds further north into D10. Waco, on the other hand, should experience 2-3 hours of occasional thunder, followed by VCSH for the remainder of the afternoon. After 03z this evening, believe the vast majority of any precipitation will have diminished or moved east of the D10-area TAF sites or Waco. Maintained VFR ceilings at all sites through most of the overnight period, with the addition of MVFR ceilings at Waco from 09-15Z. Guidance does also suggest the possibility of some limited showery redevelopment across North Texas after 09z, and included VCSH at all sites through daybreak Monday. Confidence in this additional precipitation is not great at this time, however. Conditions should transition to VFR sky conditions areawide by mid morning Monday. Surface troughing to the west of the region will promote a south to southwesterly flow regime through Monday afternoon, at speeds averaging 06-10 knots. Bradshaw && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Limited spotter activation may be requested today within the Flood Watch. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 88 73 88 75 92 / 60 30 30 10 20 Waco 86 72 87 73 90 / 80 40 40 10 10 Paris 86 71 86 72 90 / 70 40 50 20 30 Denton 88 72 89 73 93 / 40 30 30 10 20 McKinney 88 73 88 74 92 / 60 40 40 20 20 Dallas 89 73 88 75 93 / 70 30 40 10 20 Terrell 88 72 88 73 92 / 70 40 40 10 10 Corsicana 90 73 91 75 93 / 70 40 40 10 10 Temple 88 72 89 73 91 / 80 40 40 5 10 Mineral Wells 88 71 89 72 93 / 40 20 30 10 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ093>095-103>107- 118>123-130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$