130
FXUS64 KFWD 041940
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
240 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 210 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024/
/Through Wednesday/

This morning`s showers and thunderstorms have finally exited to
the east. While we`ll have a break from showers and storms for the
remainder of the afternoon and evening, hot and humid conditions
will make for a rather uncomfortable afternoon across the region.
High temperatures will peak in the upper 80s and 90s across most
of the area, with a few spots across western North Texas
potentially reaching the 100 degree mark. High humidity will
result in heat index values above 100 degrees across quite a few
locations. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through this evening
for portions of Central Texas where heat index values between
105-110 degrees are expected this afternoon. Fortunately, breezy
winds should provide a small amount of relief, but it`ll still
feel quite balmy outside today.

Sometime this evening, another MCS is expected to develop in
Oklahoma and will move south through the overnight hours. We are
fairly confident this complex of storms will clip areas east and
northeast of the Metroplex late tonight into Wednesday morning.
However, the western extent of these storms is highly uncertain.
While it`s likely these storms will remain east of the I-35/I-45
corridors, we can`t rule out a few storms further west. Heavy
rainfall is expected with this system, and a Flood Watch has been
issued for areas that have the highest likelihood of seeing
renewed flooding. The current area covered by the Flood Watch may
need to be adjusted if models trend further west, but this will
be reassessed through the evening.

As for the severe threat, we are fairly confident these storms
will maintain at least some of their intensity as they cross the
Red River. Damaging winds will be the greatest threat, with a
lower threat for large hail. However, if discrete storms are able
to develop along any outflow boundaries, they would inherently
have a higher threat for large hail. Confidence is low in how much
and how quickly these storms will weaken as they move south, but
all storms should exit to our east sometime late Wednesday
morning. The rest of the day Wednesday won`t be quite as hot as
today, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Heat
index values will reach between 100-105 degrees for a few
locations, particularly across Central Texas, but are too marginal
to warrant an extension of the current Heat Advisory for now.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday Night and Beyond/

Mid-level high pressure will push overhead from the west Wednesday
night into Thursday, allowing for our first day without any rain
chances over our forecast area Thursday. With sunny skies region-
wide and rain-free conditions, expect afternoon highs to peak in
the mid- to upper 90s across much of North and Central Texas
Thursday afternoon.

Surface low pressure transiting east across Ontario and the Great
Lakes region will drag a weak cold front south across the Plains
toward North Texas Thursday night into Friday. Confidence is
highest in the frontal boundary stalling near or just north of the
Red River early Friday. High-resolution guidance over the next
few days will help increase our confidence in a more precise
placement of this boundary. Although mid-level ridging and a
subtle capping inversion will likely inhibit widespread convection
from developing during peak heating Friday afternoon, convergence
in the vicinity of the surface trough may offer enough lift to
get an isolated thunderstorm or two (~15-20% chance) going across
portions of North Texas Friday afternoon/evening. Weak flow aloft
will limit the severe threat, but a strong storm or two capable of
producing small hail and gusty downburst winds remains possible.
If any storms develop, they will quickly diminish late Friday
evening with the loss of daytime heating.

An upper trough looks to dig south over the Northern Great Plains
by the weekend shunting the overhead ridge back to the south and
west. This will put portions of the Southern Plains back under
active northwest flow aloft. Periodic chances for MCS activity
will persist through the remainder of the weekend into early next
week, with the greatest chances for additional rainfall residing
north of the I-20 corridor into Oklahoma. Slightly above-average
temperatures in the low to mid-90s are expected over the weekend.

Long-range guidance is in decent agreement that a stronger cold
front will push into North Texas in the Sunday-Monday time frame,
increasing chances for at least isolated to scattered convection
across the region. North-northeasterly winds, increased
cloudiness, and potential rainfall may help nudge temperatures
back down into the mid- to upper 80s early next week.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 210 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

MVFR ceilings are finally lifting, with VFR and breezy/gusty
winds expected for the remainder of the afternoon. Winds will be
out of the south near 15-20 knots with gusts around 25 knots. Wind
speeds should decrease this evening, remaining near 10 knots or
less through the end of the period.

A complex of storms is expected to develop in Oklahoma this
evening and move south through portions of North Texas late
tonight into Wednesday morning. VCTS was introduced to the D10
TAFs with this issuance, but how far west storms will develop
remains highly uncertain at this time. It`s possible storms will
remain east of the terminals, but this will be reassessed through
the evening. Even if storms do remain to the east, we`ll have to
monitor for another outflow boundary to bring a northeast wind
shift to D10 very similar to this morning. MVFR ceilings are
expected at all terminals early Wednesday morning through midday.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  91  73  95  76 /  20  20   0   0   5
Waco                76  91  73  92  74 /  10  20   5   0   0
Paris               69  87  68  92  70 /  60  20   0   0   5
Denton              74  90  71  93  72 /  20   5   0   0   5
McKinney            73  89  70  93  72 /  30  20   0   0   5
Dallas              75  91  73  95  75 /  20  20   0   0   5
Terrell             73  89  70  92  73 /  20  30   0   0   0
Corsicana           75  90  73  92  75 /  20  30   5   0   0
Temple              76  93  74  93  74 /  10  20   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       74  92  71  95  73 /  10   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
morning for TXZ093>095-104>107-120>123-135-148.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ142-156>160-174-
175.

&&

$$