167
FXUS64 KFWD 030717
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
217 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Tonight/

The airmass over most of North Texas remains heavily influenced
by yesterday`s storms. Both the temperature and dewpoint are in
the 60s, while areas that did not receive any storms yesterday
are in the 70s with dewpoints in the 72-76 range. This has
resulted in negligible surface-based instability despite mid-level
instability rebounding remarkably quickly. Due to this, we have
drastically lowered PoPs this morning compared to our previous
forecasts. A few storms are possible over North Texas this
morning, with the coverage of storms around 20-30%.

The warm/humid airmass over the southern portion of our forecast
area will be drawn north this morning along with a blanket of gulf
stratus. The stratus will limit heating for most of the day and
keep highs in the upper 80s for most. This is important because
there is a weak cap sitting over the region and less heating will
limit a parcel`s ability to break the cap without the help of a
focused source of ascent. It`s worth noting that the cap is
stronger west of I-35 and is weaker over East Texas. We could
see scattered warm advection showers/storms develop over the
eastern part of our area this afternoon that continue into the
evening.

Two surface boundaries are expected to be near our area later this
afternoon...an outflow boundary draped over southern Oklahoma and
a dryline to our west. Both boundaries will serve as areas for
thunderstorm development today, with an organized line of storms
expected along the outflow boundary. The CAM guidance has been
consistent with the current cluster of storms over SW Kansas being
the primary source of the outflow boundary moving into southern
Oklahoma later today. Most of the guidance brings the worst part
of this system into Arkansas, but does send the cold pool into
north Texas late in the day. Further west, thunderstorms are
expected to develop where the cold pool intersects the dryline.
For now, that appears most likely between Childress and Wichita
Falls. These storms should move E-SE and may move into Western
North Texas late in the day. Similar to the past few days, the
parameter space remains supportive of damaging wind gusts and
perhaps large hail with the strongest updrafts.

Heavy rain is expected with any storm...and since area soils are
saturated and many water retention ponds/lakes are at capacity, it
is not taking much rain to result in flash flooding.

Another round of overnight thunderstorm activity is possible
across eastern North Texas. Since this will depend on where the
boundaries reside in about 24 hours, attempting to place them is a
futile exercise at this point.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024/
Update:

No major changes were made with this latest long term forecast
update. Trends mentioned in the previous discussion below remain
representative of the period overall, with the most recent data
only necessitating a few minor tweaks/refinements to the forecast.

The main talking point for the remainder of the week will be the
return of seasonable heat with afternoon highs in the low to mid
90s and dewpoints lingering in the 70s. This will result in a few
locations through the middle of the week reaching heat index
values around 105 degrees. As far as storm potential goes, there
continues to be a low chance for intermittent showers and storms
through the week into next weekend. While most will remain dry, a
couple of isolated storms will be possible - especially on Tuesday
morning where another complex could push through portions of
North Texas along the Red River. A low chance for storms will
remain through the end of the week as a weak cold front pushes
into the region. Most of this activity will also depend on the
placement of remnant outflow boundaries through the coming days.
As mentioned before, a lot of this will depend on real-time radar,
satellite, and surface observations. Overall confidence in
coverage, extent, and timing of any convective activity remains
quite low as well, so continue to check back for updates.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Monday through Next Weekend/

After a very wet and stormy May, it looks like the summer weather
will make the headlines this week. As storm chances decrease mid-
to-late week, the heat will take the lead with widespread highs
in the 90s. With plenty of humidity in place, we will also see
heat indices in the 99-105 range Tuesday through Thursday.

Monday`s daytime storm chances will highly depend on what happens
with the MCS coming south from Oklahoma late Sunday night. As
we`ve seen with the recent storm systems, not only they have
steadily tracked into North Texas during the morning, but also
have left surface boundaries that have triggered convection in
the afternoon. While it is difficult to pinpoint where these
storms will track/develop, at this time it appears everyone but
the far western zones will have at least a low chance for storms
Monday afternoon and evening. The threat for severe weather will
exist with any of these storms with damaging winds and hail as
the main threats. Some storms may also produce brief heavy rain
and isolated instances of flooding. Storm chances should decrease
Monday night, but we will continue to monitor the potential for
another complex traveling south into our area Tuesday morning.
Make sure to keep checking back the forecast for updates!

An upper ridge centered over Mexico and southern Texas is
expected to shift northward during the mid week period (Tuesday-
Thursday), spreading some its subsidence across the region. While
a mainly dry period will prevail for most of us, a few locations
may see some diurnally driven showers/storms Tuesday and
Wednesday. Confidence remains low to mention it in the forecast at
this time. Beyond that, latest guidance continue to highlight a
weak surface front moving southward late Thursday which may bring
low rain chances along the Red River into Friday. Northwest flow
aloft may also return next weekend and with that the potential
for additional rounds of isolated to scattered storms.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

A seemingly narrow band of IFR ceilings was stretched over the D10
terminals that will lead to short-lived low ceilings the next few
hours. IFR-MVFR stratus will engulf all of our TAF terminals early
this morning and remain in place for most of the morning. Ceilings
should slowly lift to VFR after 18-20Z this afternoon.

We have removed VCTS from the TAFs during the pre-dawn period. The
thunderstorm complex to our northwest never materialized and is
no longer expected. We`ll still have to watch for isolated storms
developing near/after sunrise, but the chance of an early day
storm is around 20%. Scattered storms are expected again this
afternoon, with 1 or 2 large storm complexes developing in our
region (either in Oklahoma or North Texas). Our low confidence of
where this will take place has precluded including TS on-station
with the 06Z TAFs.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  93  76  92  76 /  20   5  10  10  10
Waco                74  93  75  91  75 /  20   5   5  10  10
Paris               72  87  74  88  72 /  20  10  20  20  10
Denton              73  92  74  92  73 /  20   5  10  10  10
McKinney            73  90  75  90  73 /  20   5  20  10  10
Dallas              74  93  76  92  76 /  20   5  10  10  10
Terrell             73  91  75  89  73 /  20   5  10  10  10
Corsicana           75  92  77  92  75 /  20   5   5  10  10
Temple              74  93  75  93  74 /  20   5   5  10  10
Mineral Wells       73  94  74  93  73 /  20   0   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$