015
FXUS64 KFWD 030033
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
733 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday/

Convective clusters continue to effect North Texas as of 7pm,
primarily east of the Metroplex along the I-20 corridor.
Additional isolated severe thunderstorms developed across Central
Texas during peak heating within an area of extreme instability
aided by broad ascent from a subtle mid-level shortwave. Attendant
hail/wind threats still accompany most of this convection, with
robust rainfall rates also culminating in flash flooding. Most of
the Central Texas activity is likely to weaken with loss of
daytime heating in the next few hours, while the more organized
segments present in North East Texas are able to sustain
themselves longer before eventually exiting the area to the east
this evening.

Following the departure and dissipation of ongoing activity,
we`ll need to watch ongoing TX Panhandle convection which may
attempt to congeal into a complex tonight and advance ESE. It is
still unclear what effect (if any) this evening`s convection may
have on this activity should it encroach on North Texas overnight.
But, latest objective analysis does depict our environment
recovering fairly quickly with more than sufficient MUCAPE to
support additional convection overnight. A Panhandle complex may
tend to follow a lingering outflow boundary and attendant theta-e
and instability axes in a more south/southeast direction towards
Abilene and San Angelo, as this area was largely undisturbed by
convection during the preceding 12 hours. This forecast is largely
based on current objective analysis and trends/intuition, as
convective allowing models are still oblivious to the fact that a
thunderstorm complex was present in North Texas this afternoon and
evening.

Another time period that will be of concern is tomorrow afternoon
and evening particularly across North and Northeast Texas where
remnant outflow boundaries could ignite new convection. Since
it`s unknown where these features would exist during peak heating,
relatively low and broad PoPs will be advertised across much of
the area. However, tomorrow`s coverage is expected to be far less
than today`s in the absence of synoptic scale ascent to aid in
initiation.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024/
Update:

No major changes were made with this latest long term forecast
update. Trends mentioned in the previous discussion below remain
representative of the period overall, with the most recent data
only necessitating a few minor tweaks/refinements to the forecast.

The main talking point for the remainder of the week will be the
return of seasonable heat with afternoon highs in the low to mid
90s and dewpoints lingering in the 70s. This will result in a few
locations through the middle of the week reaching heat index
values around 105 degrees. As far as storm potential goes, there
continues to be a low chance for intermittent showers and storms
through the week into next weekend. While most will remain dry, a
couple of isolated storms will be possible - especially on Tuesday
morning where another complex could push through portions of
North Texas along the Red River. A low chance for storms will
remain through the end of the week as a weak cold front pushes
into the region. Most of this activity will also depend on the
placement of remnant outflow boundaries through the coming days.
As mentioned before, a lot of this will depend on real-time radar,
satellite, and surface observations. Overall confidence in
coverage, extent, and timing of any convective activity remains
quite low as well, so continue to check back for updates.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Monday through Next Weekend/

After a very wet and stormy May, it looks like the summer weather
will make the headlines this week. As storm chances decrease mid-
to-late week, the heat will take the lead with widespread highs
in the 90s. With plenty of humidity in place, we will also see
heat indices in the 99-105 range Tuesday through Thursday.

Monday`s daytime storm chances will highly depend on what happens
with the MCS coming south from Oklahoma late Sunday night. As
we`ve seen with the recent storm systems, not only they have
steadily tracked into North Texas during the morning, but also
have left surface boundaries that have triggered convection in
the afternoon. While it is difficult to pinpoint where these
storms will track/develop, at this time it appears everyone but
the far western zones will have at least a low chance for storms
Monday afternoon and evening. The threat for severe weather will
exist with any of these storms with damaging winds and hail as
the main threats. Some storms may also produce brief heavy rain
and isolated instances of flooding. Storm chances should decrease
Monday night, but we will continue to monitor the potential for
another complex traveling south into our area Tuesday morning.
Make sure to keep checking back the forecast for updates!

An upper ridge centered over Mexico and southern Texas is
expected to shift northward during the mid week period (Tuesday-
Thursday), spreading some its subsidence across the region. While
a mainly dry period will prevail for most of us, a few locations
may see some diurnally driven showers/storms Tuesday and
Wednesday. Confidence remains low to mention it in the forecast at
this time. Beyond that, latest guidance continue to highlight a
weak surface front moving southward late Thursday which may bring
low rain chances along the Red River into Friday. Northwest flow
aloft may also return next weekend and with that the potential
for additional rounds of isolated to scattered storms.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Convection is beginning to exit the D10 TAF sites to the east as
of 0030z, but impacts will continue for another hour or so with
lightning nearby and variable surface winds due to multiple
convective outflows. After 01z, winds should return to ESE where
they will remain through tonight. There is a small chance for
convection currently ongoing in the Panhandle to move into North
Texas overnight, and will retain a very brief VCTS mention to
account for this low potential around or just prior to daybreak.
Otherwise, expect a broad swath of MVFR (and perhaps IFR) cigs to
overspread much of the area towards daybreak which will last
through late morning. Isolated storms may attempt to develop
across parts of North/Northeast Texas late tomorrow afternoon, but
this potential is too low to introduce to the TAFs at this time.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  87  75  93  76 /  70  30  20   5  10
Waco                71  89  74  93  75 /  20  20  20   5   5
Paris               71  84  71  87  74 /  90  50  20  10  20
Denton              70  87  73  92  74 /  70  30  20   5  10
McKinney            71  86  73  90  75 /  90  30  20   5  20
Dallas              72  88  74  93  76 /  80  30  20   5  10
Terrell             71  87  73  91  75 /  90  40  20   5  10
Corsicana           73  89  76  92  77 /  40  30  20   5   5
Temple              73  90  75  93  75 /  20  20  20   5   5
Mineral Wells       70  90  73  94  74 /  40  20  10   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$