846
FXUS64 KFWD 010612
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
112 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Tonight/

A MCS with a well-defined cold pool is moving east across West
Texas early this morning. Corfidi vectors indicate it should
continue moving SE around 20 kts through the pre-dawn hours,
gradually weakening as it moves into more unfavorable low-level
inflow. We expect the leading edge of the cold pool to move into
our westernmost counties north of I-20 around 3-4 AM. By this
time, it should be sub-severe with wind gusts to around 30-40
mph, maybe a few storms, and a contracting area of stratiform
precip. While a few showers are possible across North Texas after
sunrise, most of the area will be precip-free early this morning.

The MCS will leave a stalled outflow boundary across the region
as well as a remnant MCV somewhere across North Texas. Both of
these features should serve as a source of ascent for isolated to
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Since the guidance has
been notoriously bad at handling these small-scale features this
week, we are still uncertain where these features will be later
today. Due to this, we have maintained broad-brushed 20-30 PoPs
across much of the region this afternoon. We`re more confident
that some storms will develop today, but the low PoPs are due to
lack of confidence regarding where the storms will be. We have
slightly more confidence that most of the convection should take
place along or east of I-35 with storms moving ESE after
developing.

The parameter space for severe weather isn`t off the charts like
it was for much of last week, but there is still sufficient deep-
layer shear and instability to support a low-end severe wind and
hail risk. After the afternoon convection dissipates after sunset,
we`ll have to shift our attention west to another MCS that should
move into western North Texas early Sunday morning.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 244 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024/
/Sunday Through Next Week/

An unsettled pattern will continue through much of the forecast
period, with zonal flow remaining in place through the end of the
weekend through much of next week. On and off chances for showers
and thunderstorms will continue through the middle of next week.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible at times as well
as convective complexes push into portions of North and Central
Texas from the west and north. The threats with these additional
rounds of activity will include damaging winds, large hail, and
the continued potential for flash flooding. The tornado threat
will be low but not zero. This will mostly hinge on the evolution
of storms, which will more likely than not move through in the
form of clusters. This would increase our potential for damaging
winds, and elevated thunderstorms will of course have the
potential for severe hail. Any remnant outflow boundaries or
surface fronts will serve to increase the tornado potential
locally should storms become surface based, but the mass majority
of storms should remain elevated as strengthening cold pools
dominate the region. That being said, overall confidence in any of
this activity remains quite low as model guidance continues to
offer a wide range of solutions. The only thing that is certain is
this active pattern that we are currently in doesn`t seem to be
going anywhere any time soon. As has been the case for the last
several days, specific timing, coverage, and hazards will be hard
to narrow down and may continue to heavily rely on real-time
observations and radar/satellite interpretation. Continue to check
for updates as the forecast is sure to evolve as we move forward.

The other main talking point with the long term forecast involves
the heat that will begin to make its return across the region
through the end of next week. Afternoon highs in the 90s with
dewpoints in the 70s will allow heat indices to approach 105
degrees. Heat illness will become an increasing concern for those
working outside, especially for our vulnerable populations.

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

VFR and light southeast flow should prevail through most of the
pre-dawn hours. The anvil of a convective complex over West Texas
is currently moving over the region and will remain in place for
much of the morning. The storms should weaken as they move into
the western D10 ARR/DEP gates, with only a remnant outflow
boundary remaining by the time it moves into D10 this morning.

The stalled boundary and a weak mid-level disturbance should help
develop isolated to scattered thunderstorms over North Texas this
afternoon. We have introduced VCTS to the TAFs to account for
this, but we do not have high enough confidence that storms will
take place over D10 itself to add a TS TEMPO at this time. Most
storms should move east late in the afternoon and dissipate after
sunset.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  88  74  88  74 /   5  30  20  30  30
Waco                70  89  74  87  74 /   5  20  10  20  20
Paris               66  86  69  86  71 /   5  30  20  40  30
Denton              67  87  72  87  72 /  10  30  20  30  30
McKinney            67  87  72  87  72 /   5  30  20  30  30
Dallas              70  89  74  89  74 /   5  30  20  30  30
Terrell             68  88  72  87  73 /   5  30  10  30  20
Corsicana           71  88  74  89  75 /   5  30  10  30  20
Temple              70  89  75  89  75 /  20  20  10  20  10
Mineral Wells       67  88  72  88  72 /  20  20  20  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$