972
FXUS64 KFWD 052243
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
543 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday Evening/

A weak surface front associated with last night`s storm complex
has essentially stalled just south of the I-20 corridor, near a
line from Brownwood to Palestine during the past hour. Dewpoints
have dropped to more tolerable values compared to yesterday
(generally in the lower to mid 60s) for areas north of the front.
Dewpoints are still in the lower to mid 70s south of the front,
continuing the hot and humid trend across Central Texas with
current heat indices near 100.

Fog formation looks like a good possibility overnight due to
clearing skies and light winds, particularly near the stalling
surface boundary. Any area which received rain overnight could see
at least patchy fog by daybreak. The current forecast will
continue to show patchy fog for roughly the eastern half of the
CWA where the brunt of last night`s precipitation occurred. The
front will become too diffuse to recognize overnight into Thursday
morning, with light south winds returning area-wide by Thursday
afternoon. Another weak cold front will sag south through Oklahoma
Thursday afternoon, which may kick off an isolated storm or two
along the Red River Thursday afternoon and evening.


30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 231 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024/
/Friday and Beyond/

Overhead mid-level ridging will keep a mostly dry forecast over
our forecast area through the end of the week minus a couple low
chances across far North Texas. Expect afternoon high temperatures
in the low to mid-90s through the weekend, possibly approaching
the century mark west of Hwy 281 on Saturday. The stalled frontal
boundary over Oklahoma may provide a focus for isolated
thunderstorm development again Friday afternoon. As we move into
the time range of several convective-allowing models, hints at
some Thursday night/Friday morning convection over Oklahoma are
beginning to appear. Outflow from these thunderstorms may act as
another focal point for convective initiation near the Red River
Friday afternoon. However, a stout capping inversion and
subsidence associated with mid-level ridging will be acting
against storms developing keeping rain chances low (~15%) and
coverage very isolated (if storms even develop).

By Saturday, a shortwave trough will dig south over the northern
Great Plains shunting the aforementioned mid-level high pressure
south and east opening portions of the Southern Plains back up for
some overnight MCS activity. Although the better potential for
this activity looks to remain north, a thunderstorm complex may
scrape across our far northern Red River counties Saturday night.
More area-wide rain chances look to return in the Sunday-Monday
timeframe as guidance continues to highlight a stronger frontal
passage over North and Central Texas. We will keep at least low
end rain chances through the middle of next week as our region
looks to remain under active northwest flow aloft. North-
northeasterly winds, increased cloudiness, and potential
precipitation may nudge temperatures back into the 80s across much
of North and Central Texas by Monday.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Light north winds will become light and variable after midnight
tonight, then light south mid to late Thursday morning. Patchy fog
may lower visibilities slightly, mainly in the 09Z to 13Z time
frame. Dense fog will most likely remain east of all TAF sites but
will need to monitor METAR trends overnight. Otherwise VFR and
overall quiet aviation weather can be expected.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  95  74  94  77 /   0   0   5   5   0
Waco                70  93  71  93  75 /   0   0   0   5   0
Paris               63  92  69  90  72 /   0   0   0  20   0
Denton              66  94  69  93  76 /   0   0  10  10   0
McKinney            66  93  70  92  75 /   0   0   5  20   0
Dallas              70  96  72  95  77 /   0   0   5   5   0
Terrell             67  92  70  93  74 /   0   0   0   5   0
Corsicana           70  94  72  94  75 /   0   0   0   5   0
Temple              71  94  71  95  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       68  97  71  96  75 /   0   0  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$