630
FXUS64 KFWD 270023
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
723 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight through Monday Night/

A warm and humid airmass remains in place across much of North
Texas this evening although a weak front/dryline is slowly pushing
south into the region. While it`s not considerably cooler behind
this boundary, it is much drier with dewpoints in the 40s across
northwest parts of the CWA. This boundary will push south of I-20
in the next few hours before stalling out late this evening.

Overnight tonight, light winds and humid conditions can be
expected, particularly south of I-20 and may result in some patchy
fog. On Monday, we`ll see a resurgence of moisture back to the
north along with temperatures 5-7 degrees above normal. By peak
afternoon heating, the atmosphere across North and Central TX will
become uncapped and strongly unstable with mixed layer CAPE
exceeding 5000 J/kg. Low level winds will initially be weak, but
modest mid and upper level flow will be supportive of semi-
organized convection should storms be able to develop. Mid and
upper level forcing will be weak but isolated convection may
develop by late afternoon/evening across parts of the region. Any
storms that develop would generally be capable of very large hail
and perhaps a tornado or two. Convection may persist into the late
evening hours before diminishing overnight. Coverage of
thunderstorms on Monday afternoon/evening would be around 20% or
less.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 322 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024/
/Monday Night into the weekend/

With a mid/upper-level ridge building over the western U.S. and
consolidating lows/troughs over the Great Lakes, North and Central
Texas will be on the southern fringe of a northwest flow pattern
by late Monday. Regional models and high-resolution CAMs show rain
chances may return as early as Monday evening as a cold front
continues to slowly move across the region. This will kick-off
the next multi-day period of unsettled weather across North and
Central Texas. Daily thunderstorm complexes are expected to
develop across the High Plains in response to a series of subtle
shortwaves/perturbations embedded along the northern periphery of
the larger scale ridge. Convection will spread eastward nightly,
bringing periodic rain and storm chances to the region through the
end of the week.

The pattern will become increasingly messy as the week wears on
as mesoscale features evolve. This lowered predictability has
resulted in some broad-brushing of PoPs, especially mid/late
week. The main change with this forecast update will be the
introduction of slight chance (20% of less) PoPs after 00Z Tuesday
(7 PM Monday) generally near and west of the I-35 corridor. As
the backdoor front temporarily stalls over the region late Monday,
the moist/unstable and briefly uncapped airmass south of the
front will be primed for storm development with the potential for
severe weather given the 50 kts of available effective shear. A
strengthening low level jet during the evening will also enhance
moisture advection and isentropic ascent through the overnight
period. If storms develop, all severe hazards will be possible.

By Thursday into Friday, the front should lift back northward as
a warm front, repositioning the warm/moist airmass more directly
overhead and fueling thunderstorm development through the end of
the week and into the weekend. With PWATs approaching 1.75 to 2
inches at times, periods of locally heavy rainfall are likely. Due
to lingering moist soils, localized flooding issues may also
emerge, especially wherever higher convective rain rates occur.
Temperatures will be fairly steady throughout the week though
tempered slightly by the expected cloud cover and precipitation.
Highs will generally be in the 80s to lower 90s with lows in the
mid 60s to lower 70s.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the late evening with a weak boundary
pushing through the D10 airspace at this time. A weak wind shift
to the north is expected this evening with winds gradually
becoming more easterly overnight. There is some potential for fog
at Waco during the early morning hours, but VFR should prevail
through much of the afternoon outside of any convective areas that
may develop.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  95  72  89  69 /   0  10  20  40  60
Waco                72  93  72  89  69 /   0  20  20  40  60
Paris               67  92  67  85  66 /  10   0  20  30  50
Denton              67  95  69  88  67 /   0   5  20  40  60
McKinney            69  93  70  87  68 /   0   5  20  40  60
Dallas              73  95  72  90  69 /   0  10  20  40  60
Terrell             71  93  70  88  68 /   5  10  20  40  50
Corsicana           75  94  72  91  70 /   5  20  20  40  50
Temple              73  95  72  90  68 /   0  20  20  40  50
Mineral Wells       67  95  70  89  67 /   0  10  20  50  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ135-145>148-158>162-
174-175.

&&

$$