005
FXUS64 KFWD 070532
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1232 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Saturday Afternoon/

Expect a much anticipated quiet end to the week across North and
Central Texas as upper level ridging builds in atop the Southern
Plains. While a shortwave transiting around the periphery of the
ridge provided enough large-scale lift along a stalled front across
Oklahoma to produce a few storms this evening, the approaching
subsident airmass has kept them from moving closer to our
northwestern counties. As such, all of our 46 counties will remain
dry to start the weekend.

This afternoon will feature warm high temperatures in the 90s,
but with dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s, heat index values
will peak between ~96-102, just below Heat Advisory range.
Meanwhile, the surface ridge will slide further east, tightening
the surface pressure gradient and increasing winds to around 10-15
mph across the western half of the region. The slight uptick in
winds will help to offset the summer heat somewhat, making for a
relatively nice day.

While a cut-off low near Baja Mexico swinging up towards the Desert
Southwest will shift the upper ridge center a bit eastward on
Saturday, North and Central Texas will still be under its influence.
In the presence of rain-free and mostly sunny conditions,
temperatures will be able to rise into the 90s once again. A
continued tightened surface pressure gradient will promote
increased wind speeds up to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph
through the first half of the weekend.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024/
/Saturday through Thursday/

The weekend weather will feature rain-free and warm conditions
across North Central Texas, as an upper level ridge of high
pressure builds across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi
Valley. Daytime temperatures will rise well into the 90s areawide
Saturday, which represents above normal conditions for early June.
However, with slightly restrained humidity, heat indices at most
locales should only top out in the upper 90s. The ridge will shift
just a bit east on Sunday, inhibiting the highs from climbing much
beyond the lower to middle 90s. However, slightly higher dewpoints
should result in similar heat index vales to those seen Saturday.

A pattern evolution will commence Sunday night as the upper ridge
begins to flatten, and the first of multiple subtle shortwaves
approaches the region from the northwest. The arrival of this weak
forcing for ascent will create an opportunity for the development
of scattered showers and thunderstorms to our immediate northwest
late Sunday night into Monday. Maintained low chance PoPs across
our northwest counties Sunday night, spreading area wide on
Monday. Substantial cloudiness, coupled with areas of rain and the
arrival of a weak cold front, will help limit high temperatures
Monday to the 80s. Apart from the likely presence of the weak
boundary loitering across our southern zones, overall synoptic
scale forcing will be a bit more nebulous on Tuesday. As a result,
kept PoPs Tuesday in the slight chance/low chance range, with low
PoPs persisting into Wednesday due to widely separated diurnal
convection. Highs in the 80s will continue Tuesday and Wednesday,
due to residual cloud cover and an absence of large scale
subsidence.

Unfortunately, an upper ridge will reassert itself across
northern Mexico and Texas from Thursday into Friday, sending
daytime highs back into the upper 90s by the end of the week.

Bradshaw

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

VFR and SE winds will prevail through the next 24-30 hours. Wind
speeds are currently around 5 kts or less, and will stay
relatively light through morning. An increase in speeds to around
10 kts with occasional gusts closer to 20 kts are expected over
this afternoon. High-mid level cloud cover is possible over today,
but should pose no impacts.

A greater increase in wind speeds to around 15 kts (gusts to 25
kts) is expected tomorrow afternoon, but will be covered in
future TAF issuances.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  96  76  95  75 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                69  93  74  93  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               68  91  71  92  73 /   5   5   5   0   0
Denton              73  94  73  95  73 /  10   0   5   0   0
McKinney            71  93  73  94  73 /   5   5   5   0   0
Dallas              72  94  76  95  75 /   5   0   0   0   0
Terrell             70  91  72  92  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           70  93  74  94  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              69  95  73  94  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       68  95  74  97  73 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$