263
FXUS64 KFWD 062241
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
541 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday Evening/

A mid level ridge will continue to expand east across North Texas
over the next 36 hours, providing seasonably hot and rain-free
conditions through the end of the week. Highs both today and
Friday should reach well into the 90s. Fortunately dewpoints will
remain in the 60s, which will preclude the need for a Heat
Advisory at any point. The pressure gradient will tighten on
Friday as North and Central Texas become wedged between a surface
ridge over the Mississippi Valley and a deepening lee cyclone,
which will make for a hot and breezy Friday across the region. The
stronger south winds will keep Friday night`s temperatures mostly
in the 70s.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024/
/Saturday through Thursday/

The weekend weather will feature rain-free and warm conditions
across North Central Texas, as an upper level ridge of high
pressure builds across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi
Valley. Daytime temperatures will rise well into the 90s areawide
Saturday, which represents above normal conditions for early June.
However, with slightly restrained humidity, heat indices at most
locales should only top out in the upper 90s. The ridge will shift
just a bit east on Sunday, inhibiting the highs from climbing much
beyond the lower to middle 90s. However, slightly higher dewpoints
should result in similar heat index vales to those seen Saturday.

A pattern evolution will commence Sunday night as the upper ridge
begins to flatten, and the first of multiple subtle shortwaves
approaches the region from the northwest. The arrival of this weak
forcing for ascent will create an opportunity for the development
of scattered showers and thunderstorms to our immediate northwest
late Sunday night into Monday. Maintained low chance PoPs across
our northwest counties Sunday night, spreading area wide on
Monday. Substantial cloudiness, coupled with areas of rain and the
arrival of a weak cold front, will help limit high temperatures
Monday to the 80s. Apart from the likely presence of the weak
boundary loitering across our southern zones, overall synoptic
scale forcing will be a bit more nebulous on Tuesday. As a result,
kept PoPs Tuesday in the slight chance/low chance range, with low
PoPs persisting into Wednesday due to widely separated diurnal
convection. Highs in the 80s will continue Tuesday and Wednesday,
due to residual cloudcover and an absence of large scale
subsidence.

Unfortunately, an upper ridge will reassert itself across
northern Mexico and Texas from Thursday into Friday, sending
daytime highs back into the upper 90s by the end of the week.

Bradshaw

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

High pressure aloft will provide VFR and overall quiet aviation
weather through Friday night. Winds should remain light southeast
tonight, becoming south at 10-15 kt on Friday.


30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  96  76  96  75 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                70  93  73  93  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               69  91  71  92  73 /   5   5   0   0   0
Denton              71  94  73  95  73 /  10   5   0   0   0
McKinney            71  93  73  94  73 /   5   5   0   0   0
Dallas              72  94  76  96  75 /   5   0   0   0   0
Terrell             70  91  73  93  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           71  93  74  95  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              70  95  73  95  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       71  95  73  98  73 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$