988
FXUS64 KFWD 061732
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1232 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday/

Quiet weather will close out the work week as a mid-level ridge
gradually builds over the region. Warm afternoon temperatures and
mostly sunny skies are expected both today and Friday. There is a
very low (10%) chance that an isolated shower or storm will skirt
our northwestern zones this evening. Otherwise, rain chances will
remain near zero over the next couple of days. High temperatures
will be in the 90s both days, but slightly lower humidity than
we`ve seen recently will keep heat index values near actual
temperatures.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 321 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024/
/This Weekend and Next Week/

Mid-level ridging will dominate the pattern this weekend, allowing
for hot and mainly rain-free conditions to prevail. Saturday
should be the warmest day with most of the area climbing to the
mid 90s. Although a stiff southerly breeze will provide some
relief from the heat, dew points in the low 70s will result in
heat index values in the 100-105 range.

A weakness in the ridge, digging shortwave trough, and a weak
cold front moving into the area will open the door for a short-
lived period of more active weather late this weekend into early
next week. Northwest flow aloft should return by Sunday and open
the door for additional overnight/early morning MCSs to move into
the area, mainly Sunday and Monday nights.

The ensemble mean guidance is indicating a resurgence of mid-level
ridging over West Texas in the middle to late parts of next week.
While most guidance keeps weak northwest flow over North Texas,
the dominance of the high to our southwest should nudge the MCS
activity further north with only a 10% chance of thunderstorm
chances continuing beyond Tuesday morning.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period. Winds will remain variable
out of the east/southeast for the remainder of the afternoon with
wind speeds below 10 knots. Winds may briefly shift out of the
south between 05-08Z tonight, but wind speeds will be below 5
knots during this time. Southerly winds near 10 knots are expected
Friday afternoon.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  73  94  76  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                93  70  93  74  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               92  69  90  71  91 /   0   5   5   0   0
Denton              93  70  94  75  94 /   0   5   5   0   0
McKinney            92  70  93  74  94 /   0   5   5   0   0
Dallas              96  73  94  76  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             91  69  92  73  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           93  71  94  74  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              93  70  94  73  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       96  70  96  73  96 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$