196
FXUS63 KGID 181734
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1234 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong southerly winds...with occasional gusts to 45 MPH...
  will gradually diminish across the area this morning as a cold
  front approaches from the northwest.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along
  and ahead of this cold front by mid-afternoon, with quarter
  sized hail and 60 mph wind gusts being the primary concerns.

- After the severe threat diminishes this evening, more
  widespread non-severe showers and thunderstorms are expected
  to fill in across the region, with rainfall totals of 1-2
  inches...with locally higher amounts...possible. This could
  result in some localized flooding.

- Much cooler temperatures (60s & 70s) and continued unsettled
  weather is expected Wednesday, with temperatures returning to
  normal (mid-80s) and eventually above normal (90s) by the end
  of the week and through next weekend. In addition...off and on
  small thunderstorm chances will be possible across at least
  parts of the local area each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024res

A cold front can be seen on satellite rapidly moving across
western Nebraska this morning. As this front reaches the local
area, strong southerly winds across the region early this
morning should rapidly diminish. This front is then forecast to
stall...roughly near the Tri-cities corridor, eventually
becoming the focus for shower and thunderstorm development by
midday. While instability is significantly lower than the
previous few days, cooler air aloft should allow for the
development of thunderstorms along the front...some of which
could become strong to marginally severe. Given the more modest
instability (500-2000J/KG) and adequate shear, think the
biggest threat will be hail to size of quarters along with some
60 mph wind gusts...with this threat focused during the the late
afternoon through evening hours along a fairly narrow corridor
near and on the warm side of the cold front.

As the severe threat diminishes during the late evening hours,
models bring an upper level disturbance out of the southwest
over the frontal boundary...which should bring a more widespread
chance for showers and thunderstorms to the local area...and
potentially some widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2
inches...with locally higher totals...when all is said and done
by Wednesday morning. This could result in some localized
flooding...especially across areas that have received
significant rainfall over the past week. With the flooding
threat expected to be localized, shied away from a flash flood
watch for any of the local area.

With the cold front essentially washing out across the local
area on Wednesday, a cloudy, cool and unsettled day appears to
be in store, with high temperatures not expected to climb out of
the 60s across a large portion of the area. This break in heat
will be relatively short lived, however, as temperatures will
rapidly return to normal as skies clear on Thursday...climbing
back above normal for the end of the week and upcoming weekend.
While the heaviest and most widespread precip is expected across
the area over the next 36-48 hours, there will be additional
chances for showers and thunderstorms through the period as a
fairly active, mostly zonal, upper level flow pattern will bring
periodic chances for weather across at least parts of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A cold front moving through the area today and Wednesday will
bring mainly MVFR CIGS (IFR CIGS possible later in the period) and
periods of SHRA and TSRA to the TAF sites throughout the TAF
period. -TSRA is expected to develop near the TAF sites this
afternoon around 18/19Z or so...included a TEMPO group for -TSRA
to try to narrow down expected impacts at the terminals. Latest
models have SHRA/TSRA much of the time over southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area (including KGRI) with potentially
another round moving into KEAR late this evening overnight
(which is why VCTS is included for KGRI through the majority of
the period but there is a period where we left VCTS off in
relation to KEAR). TSRA activity should decrease around sunrise
across the area but showers and embedded thunderstorms will
persist through 19/18Z. Around 19/12Z CIGS are expected to
deteriorate further into IFR conditions.

Winds: Winds will become northwesterly as the cold front passes
through (around 18Z-19Z today at KGRI). There will be isolated
gusts of 20-25 kts through the afternoon, becoming 10-15 kts
sustained through the evening. Tonight into Wednesday morning,
winds will become northeasterly, also at 10-15 kts.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Hickford