863
FXUS63 KGID 202113
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
413 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small chances (20 percent) of thunderstorms remain in the
  forecast late this afternoon/evening across far
  western/northern portions of the forecast area. Better chances
  for severe weather look to focus off to our north, but a few
  stronger storms are not out of the question.

- Another chance for storms returns to mainly northern portions
  of the forecast area Friday evening/night...with 30-50 percent
  chances focused along/north of Highway 92. There will be the
  potential for a few to be strong to marginally severe.

- Heat is expected to ramp late this weekend into early next
  week. Monday currently the overall-hottest day of the 7-day
  forecast, with widespread heat index values in the 100-105
  degree range possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Currently on into tonight...

Been a dry but increasingly breezy day today across the
forecast, with a nice rebound in temperatures from the 60s/70s
recorded on Wednesday. Upper air and satellite data show
continued south- southwesterly flow in place across the area,
set up between a large area of high pressure settled over
portions of the Midwest and Mid- East Coast regions, with
troughing remaining in place over the West Coast. At the
surface, the day started off with plenty of low level stratus in
place, along with patchy fog and southeasterly winds around 10
MPH...as we sat north of the main frontal boundary. Through the
day, as surface low pressure has deepened over eastern portions
of the WY/CO border, this warm front has pushed north, ushering
in diminishing lower level clouds, stronger southerly winds, and
warmer temperatures. Gusts here at mid-afternoon are in the
mainly in the 20-30 MPH range. Those southerly winds have
brought in more moisture, with dewpoints climbing into the upper
60s to low 70s...and temperatures this afternoon so far in most
of the forecast area have reached the mid 80s to low
90s...feeling much more like summer for the start of
astronomical summer/Summer Solstice.

For the rest of this afternoon and mainly into this evening, with
that surface frontal boundary still hanging around northern
portions of the forecast area...can`t totally rule out some
isolated showers/thunderstorms, so kept a 20 percent change
going in the forecast (mainly along/north of an Ord-York line).
Will also see how activity off to our west evolves, a few models
suggest some of that could drift far enough east to clip our
far west (roughly along an Ord-Elwood line)...so do have some 20
percent chances remaining for that potential. Plenty of
instability in the area should any storms develop this
afternoon/early evening, but lapse rates/deeper layer shear
values are on the lower side...so storms may struggle. Best
chances for precip look to be pre-midnight (then shift off to
our north), and have the rest of the overnight hours tonight
dry. Overnight lows expected to bottom out in the mid 60s-low
70s.

Friday and Saturday....

This time frame sees the start of a transition in upper level
flow across the area, and overall there hasn`t been any
significant changes in models. During the day on Friday, models
show upper level low remaining southwesterly, though the main
area of high pressure continues to sink SSW, closer to the Gulf
Coast region by evening. Into Saturday/Saturday night, thanks at
least part to an area of low pressure sliding east across
central Canada, this upper high becomes more elongated/stretched
across the southern CONUS, allowing for zonal flow across the
forecast area. With the daytime hours currently forecast to be
dry, the main chance for any precipitation looks to come Friday
evening/Friday night, the the arrival of the trough axis
extending south from the parent low in Canada. Similar to today,
expecting gusty southerly winds to develop during the day as we
sit south of the main frontal boundary. Activity expected to
develop along that boundary during the afternoon hours, pushing
east through the evening/overnight hours. At this point the
better chances are across the northern half of the forecast area
(roughly HWY 6 and north), with more question in the southward
extent mainly due to warmer mid-level temps/capping
potential...some models suggest activity would again be focused
closer to/north of HWY 92...so there are some uncertainties
there to iron out. Where storms do develop, potential for a few
to be strong to marginally severe isn`t totally out of the
question. Into the day on Saturday, for most areas the forecast
is dry. Some lingering 20 percent chances remain across eastern
portions of the area, mainly tied to the frontal boundary that
continues making its way south through the area.

Highs for Friday are forecast to reach the low 90s, but at least
those southerly winds will be gusty to help keep the misery
level down a touch from what it could be if winds were calm.
Little more uncertainty in temperatures for Saturday, as is the
case when there is a daytime frontal passage. Timing of that
boundary is a big driver...a slower push will allow for more
areas to be warmer than expected. Current forecast has mid 80s
in the NNW, upper 80s in the Tri-Cities, low-mid 90s in the SSE.
Areas ahead of that front could have heat index values near 100
degrees.

Sunday on into mid-week...

By Sunday morning, models show upper level flow has turned more
northwesterly, remaining that way at least into Monday, as that
area of high pressure/ridging has moved into the Desert
SW/Rockies region. The forecast for Sunday and Monday is
currently dry, but confidence in it staying that way isn`t
overly high..especially during the evening/overnight hours
across western portions of the forecast area. Through ridging
has set up to our west, it isn`t strong enough to solidly push
any embedded shortwave disturbances and accompanying
precipitation chances far enough north for them to not be a
concern. That is the case on into Tuesday/Wednesday, but the NBM
did have scattered preciptiation chances in the forecast.

As far as temperatures go, the overall hottest day of the
forecast continues to be Monday, not that Sunday and Tuesday
are notably better. Forecast highs for Tuesday are in the mid
90s in the north to just over 100 in the south...with widespread
heat index values in the 100-105 degree range currently
forecast. Sunday and Tuesday are closer to around 90 in the
north to around 100 in the south. Wednesday is currently
forecast to reach the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR stratus gradually diminish/lift here at midday, a trend
that is expected to continue, allowing for VFR conditions to
return early-mid afternoon. Kept mention of VFR through the
rest of the period, and with better chances for preciptiation
lifting north, should also be a dry TAF period. Winds through
the period remain southerly, gusts near 25 MPH expected this
afternoon and again mid-late morning on Friday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP