397
FXUS63 KGID 101059
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
559 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather is expected during most of the day today, but
  there will be a chance (20-50 percent) of showers/storms
  moving in from the west this evening and making their way
  southeast across the area tonight and Tuesday morning. These
  storms are not expected to be severe.

- Additional low chances for showers/storms (around 20 percent)
  return both Wednesday evening and Thursday evening. Better
  chances (40-70 percent) return Friday evening into the
  weekend.

- Very warm temperatures expected this week. The hottest will be
  Wednesday and Thursday, with heat index values well into the
  90s. A few locations, mainly across north central Kansas, may
  see heat index values exceed 100 degrees Thursday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Today through Tuesday...
A high pressure ridge moving across the Plains will help to
maintain warm and dry conditions during the day today. High
temperatures will be in the 80s. An upper trough currently over
southern Canada and the northern Rockies will move east today,
pushing the upper ridge out. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop across ern WY and CO/wrn NE mid- to late afternoon and
move east through the evening. These are expected to move into
our forecast area late tonight and into Tuesday morning. Models
continue to exhibit a weakening trend with these storms as they
move into a drier and less favorable atmosphere to sustain
thunderstorm strength (especially as it will be after dark and
we will have lost daytime heating) across central Nebraska and
Kansas, so severe weather is currently not expected. High
temperatures will be in the 80s, with southerly winds gusting to
15-25 mph (strongest west of Highway 281 this afternoon).

Tuesday, expected some of those showers and storms to linger
through the morning, but hard to say how late in the morning.
Latest CAMs really trend chances way down after daybreak, with
some of the other deterministic guidance has this lingering
through the morning and even into the afternoon across north
central Kansas. Kept low chances (20 percent) in the forecast to
account for this. Highs will again be in the 80s. Winds will be
lighter but switching from southwesterly to northerly to
easterly throughout the day.

Wednesday and Thursday...
A strong area of high pressure over the desert Southwest will
expand northeast into the southern and central Plains mid-week,
bringing the hottest temperatures so far Wednesday and Thursday.
High temperatures will be in the 90s across most of our forecast
area both days, with temperatures approaching 100 degrees across
north central Kansas Thursday afternoon (and heat index values
approaching 100 degrees both days, perhaps exceeding it in some
places Thursday afternoon). Fortunately for our temperatures,
quasi-zonal flow aloft just over and to the north of the area
are currently expected to keep temperatures/heat index values
just below the need for any kind of heat headline (model
guidance indicates just a 20-40% chance for north central KS to
reach 100 degrees Thursday). That being said, it would not take
much change in the forecast at all for temperatures to get to
the point where we need one, so we will be watching this closely
over the next few days. Headline or not, it will be hot
Wednesday and Thursday.

There will also be a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms both
Wednesday and Thursday evening, mainly associated with
shortwaves moving across the area and coincident with the
strongest daytime heating. Model guidance has been trending
drier with both of these evenings, with mainly the Canadian
model sticking to the precip solution whereas the ECMWF and GFS
keep the area dry. Keeping the slight chance of PoPs in the
forecast for now, but confidence is low.

Friday through the weekend...
An upper low will move into srn California Thursday and quickly
move into the central Plains by this weekend. Friday evening, a
shortwave trough ahead of this system will be the impetus for
showers and thunderstorms which will persist into Saturday. The
trough will move in from the southwest at some point over the
weekend, although model guidance does not show much consensus at
to precisely when...The GFS swings it across the area Saturday
evening whereas the ECMWF brings it through Sunday. Either way,
this looks to be the most active portion of the forecast period
and while a little too early to tell, there may be the potential
for severe storms late this week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 548 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Basically another wind forecast as VRB winds will become
southerly today. Overnight there will be some VCSH moving
through the area, otherwise expecting VFR through the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Beda