Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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603 FXUS63 KGID 081756 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1256 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few showers and thunderstorms may develop this morning, and again this evening and tonight. Severe weather will mainly remain to the south, but a couple of strong to severe storms may clip our north central Kansas counties this evening and tonight. - Cooler weather is expected this weekend with high temperatures in the 70s and low 80s. - Periodic low chances of precipitation through the work week. - Warmer temperatures return for the latter half of the week with high temperatures in the 80s and 90s expected Wednesday through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 This morning, a few showers and storms are moving across northern and central Kansas along a surface disturbance associated with low pressure centered in Kansas. These are expected to produce mainly just a few showers and remain sub- severe. Patchy fog is also expected to develop this morning across portions of the forecast area. Widespread dense fog is not expected at this time, and any fog that does develop will dissipate by 9 or 10 AM. Today and tonight... A weak shortwave disturbance moving across NE and KS this morning will bring a chance (20-30%) of a few showers and storms across mainly southern Nebraska later this morning and into the afternoon, but these storms will not be severe. Another stronger shortwave disturbance will move across the region this evening and tonight, bringing more rain and thunderstorms. Most of this activity is expected to move generally southeast from eastern Colorado into Kansas and generally miss our forecast area. Still, there is the chance that some of this does enter our north central Kansas counties. The strongest storms may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts, and a Marginal Risk for severe weather does include a portion of Rooks County, KS. CAMs do keep some of this just a touch north into north central Kansas, so would not be surprised to see stronger thunderstorm activity there as well. Thinking the window for severe weather is limited as instability dives south of the area during the evening. Elsewhere, very little precipitation is expected from this system, perhaps a few hundredths of an inch. High temperatures today will be in the 70s across south central Nebraska and the low to mid-80s across north central Kansas. Sunday through Tuesday... An upper ridge will develop over much of the western CONUS Sunday and move across the Plains Monday, leaving the area dry through the daytime hours Monday. High temperatures will be in the 70s to low 80s. Monday evening through Tuesday, a trough will move across the area, bringing a return to at least low end chances (20-40%) for precipitation. Wednesday through Friday... An upper ridge will move across the northern Plains and a very broad area of high pressure over the desert Southwest will expand northeast into the Plains, although there are periodic low end precipitation chances across portions of Nebraska and Kansas during this time. Temperatures across our area will be hotter Wednesday through Friday with highs into the 80s and 90s...the hottest day likely being Thursday with highs across north central Kansas forecast to be in the mid-90s. Models indicate an area of low pressure moving from off the southern California coast to the central Plains during this period, but there is a lack of model consensus as to when or if this impacts our forecast area...but it is something to keep watching with potentially more storms Friday evening into next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 KGRI/KEAR TAFS: We have some weak rain showers moving across central Nebraska early this afternoon and then we expect some thunderstorms to move in from the west later this evening. However, the thunderstorms will be more numerous across Kansas, well south of our TAF sites, with more isolated and weather showers and thunderstorms around our TAF sites. Any evening showers and thunderstorms will likely be southeast of our TAF sites after midnight with dry weather expected for Sunday morning. Ceilings will likely remain VFR and winds should consistently be out of the northeast. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hickford AVIATION...Wesely