Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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482 FXUS63 KGID 121118 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 618 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures ramp up today with highs in the mid and upper 90s and heat index values near 100 degrees. Thursday, highs will be cooler north but just as hot south, and heat index values across north central Kansas are expected to be in the 100 to 105 degree range Thursday afternoon. - Showers and thunderstorms will be possible periodically from Thursday afternoon through the middle of next week, with the greatest chances Friday evening into Saturday morning when there is a 60-80 percent chance of storms. - Temperatures Friday through the middle of next week will still be warm, but highs will be in the 80s to low 90s...so not quite as hot as the middle of this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 This morning, westerly flow aloft prevails over the central Plains and generally, further west toward the Pacific coast. Further south, high pressure is building over the desert southwest with the upper high centered over the AZ/NM/Mexico border. There is also an upper level low located off the coast of southern California. Today and Thursday... A weak surface low is expected to develop today over the Nebraska panhandle. This will help tighten the pressure gradient across the central and southern Plains, causing southerly winds to increase today. By as early as mid- to late morning, we will see winds out of the south-southwest sustained at 20-25 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph. Winds will diminish going into the evening and overnight hours tonight. With how strongly capped the area will be with the warm temperatures aloft along with the weak winds aloft, it would be a mighty struggle to get thunderstorms to develop, even with the plentiful surface heating and dewpoints well into the 60s. Temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values this afternoon will be in the 90s and approaching 100 degrees in some places. Overnight lows will remain warm, in the mid to upper 60s in south central Nebraska and in the upper 60s and low 70s in north central Kansas. A cold front will move across the area Wednesday night and Thursday, and this will keep temperatures north "cooler" but still hot in the south. High temperatures will range from the mid-80s north to the upper 90s south (across north central Kansas). With those hottest temperatures will also be heat index values of 100-105 degrees. There will be a chance of thunderstorms Thursday evening and overnight (~20%) and the southern two-thirds of the forecast area is in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms, with large hail and strong winds being the main threats with any thunderstorms that develop. Friday and Saturday... The upper low over California will split the building ridges over the northern Plains and southern Plains/Texas, with the low moving northeast Friday, evolving into an upper level trough feature. Leading this feature will be a pronounced shortwave trough, which will bring the first really good chances of thunderstorms (60-80%) across the area Friday evening into Saturday morning. With strong instability (2500-4500 J/kg, depending on the forecast model) and strong deep layer shear (50+ kts), there may well be severe storms Friday evening and overnight with large hail and damaging winds. Models indicate very heavy rainfall with these storms as well, so will need to keep an eye on the potential for localized flooding. Some of this activity may linger into Saturday afternoon as the upper trough continues through the area, but chances are a bit lower (20-40%). High temperatures will be in the 80s and 90s both Friday and Saturday. Sunday through next Tuesday... After likely a mainly dry Sunday, another front will impact the area, this one associated with surface low pressure developing over the general area of the Rocky Mountains. Model guidance is still having a tough time with how soon the cold front moves in and how long it lingers over the area, so there are in general at least slight chances (20%+) of showers and thunderstorms Sunday evening through next Tuesday. It is still too early to determine severe potential but with this continued pattern it would not be surprising. Temperatures will be pretty consistent, with highs in the 80s and 90s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 613 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Generally southerly winds at 10-12 kts early this morning will increase through the morning, with gusts of 25-30 kts expected from mid- morning through the daytime hours today. Winds will diminish and become westerly this evening, then relatively light and variable toward the end of the TAF period. Skies will be clear the majority of the time, with a few mid-level and high level clouds filtering in toward the end of the TAF period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hickford AVIATION...Hickford