424
FXUS63 KGLD 051923
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
123 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Relatively dry Wednesday and Thursday with only a slight
  chance for storms Thursday night. Temperatures will be hot
  today with highs in the 90`s.

- A return to a more active weather pattern Friday night through
  Monday night as weather systems move off the Colorado front
  range and into the Tri-State area each afternoon through
  overnight hours.

- Hot with highs in the 90s Friday then cooling closer to normal
  highs for early June in the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 131 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The short term period is forecast to be relatively warm and benign
with ridging trying to advance into the area. With the ridge`s
influence, temperatures are forecast to warm into the low 90`s today
while some drier air blows in from the west. Critical fire weather
conditions may briefly be hit in counties that border the Colorado
border, but recent green up makes explosive fire growth unlikely.
For tonight, clear skies are forecast to continue, but a trough axis
swinging through the Great Lakes is forecast to help push the lower
pressure further south and potentially bring in some colder air. It
won`t make much of a difference tonight with temperatures already
cooling to near dewpoint with clear skies and light winds. For
tomorrow high temperatures though, closer to average highs around
the mid 80`s are forecast with the slightly cooler air mass
overhead. Will need to watch for a few storms generally south of I-
70 as some moisture tries to return to the area with the low level
flow shifting to out of the southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

From the latest GFS/ECMWF, the overall upper level pattern for the
extended period from Saturday onward will consist of persistent W/NW
flow aloft due to a meandering upper ridge in the Rockies. Several
shortwaves will impact the CWA as they move off the Rockies on the
east side of the upper ridge.

At the surface:

Saturday through Saturday night, the position of the strong ridge
nosing south from the northern Plains will play a key role to the
areal coverage of expected QPF. There are differences from the GFS
versus the ECMWF with the GFS more broadly spaced as it comes into
contact with a surface low/front over southern KS/OK Panhandle. With
the inconsistency of the two models, have combined them for coverage
purposes which will initially start rw/trw chances mainly along/west
of Highway 27 during the afternoon and overspread the CWA by the
evening hours, slowly dissipating overnight.

Sunday and Sunday night, the E/SE flow on Saturday shifts to more
southerly as the ridge pushes east of the area. This will push best
chances for rw/trw into the western CWA, especially northeast
Colorado, as those locales will be closest to a lee-side
trough/upper level shortwave over the central Colorado area. The
chances for convection will persist over the 24 hour period.

Monday through Tuesday night, persistent southerly flow initially on
Monday will keep increased warmth area-wide, but storm chances will
persist as well. The aforementioned lee-side trough does push east
going into Tuesday, allowing for an increased areal coverage of
potential storms versus hwy and west for Sun-Mon.

Wednesday, warmest day of the extended period as upper/surface
ridging becoming more prominent over the area. Some instability in
far western zones may allow for rw/trw to develop, but chances are
low at this time.

Overall, PW values will reach around an inch for much of the
extended period, bringing along the chances for some locally heavy
rainfall to portions of the CWA. This will have to be monitored,
especially in the western CWA where current pops chances are
highest/persistent.

For temps, looking for daytime highs this weekend to range in the
upper 70s to the mid 80s for Saturday, and for Sunday, upper 70s to
around 80F. Going into next week, mid to upper 70s for Monday,
increasing to the lower to mid 80s for Tuesday, with mid to upper
80s for next Wednesday. Overnight lows will range in the 50s for
most nights. Some 60s are possible for areas along and east of
Highway 83 for next Tuesday/Wednesday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1004 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Both terminals will see VFR conditions through the forecast
period. For winds, west-northwest around 10-20kts for both
terminals through about 00z-02z Thursday. KGLD will see east-
northeast flow 5-10kts from 02z onward. KMCK will see mainly
northerly conditions from 00z onward around 10kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN