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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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724 FXUS63 KGLD 151951 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 151 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening with only a marginal risk for severe storms. Locally strong and gusty winds will be the main hazard, with a lower risk for hail up to quarter sized. - There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. Coverage will be limited with only a few scattered storms expected, but they will be capable of producing marginally severe wind gusts of up to 60 mph and hail up to quarter sized. - Hot temperatures return for Sunday with highs in the upper 90s and lower 100s. - Cooler temperatures expected mid-next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 150 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Across the region this afternoon, skies are mostly sunny to sunny, with some scattered cloud cover persisting ahead of a surface trough which is currently sitting over the Highway 27 corridor. Temperatures as of 100 PM MDT are ranging in the 80s with winds southerly gusting to 20-30 mph at times in the east ahead of the trough. Along and behind it, light/variable transitions to west- northwest flow. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are the main wx concerns this weekend in the short term, with some potential for some convection to become strong or severe. For the rest of the afternoon hrs into tonight, the first area around the 22z-00z timeframe for a 15-20% chance of a few storms developing will be in the small marginal risk area in the E/SE. This activity will hinge on the speed and positioning of the aforementioned surface trough which currently sits over the western CWA, along with the upper trough which is slowly moving through the CWA. Latest CAMs do support best initiation east and southeast of the CWA, but will keep a chance in there for a couple hours before the activity shifts east. For the evening hours, the focus shifts to the west-northwest where isolated/scattered convection is already forming ahead of a cold front in the central Rockies. CAMs are showing activity increasing towards 22z as it approaches the western portions of our northeast Colorado counties. Instability does drop off some as convection crosses the Colorado border, with soundings showing best threat to be winds as DCape peaks in the 1600-1800j/kg range around the 21z- 00z timeframe. Convection begins to fall apart from 00z-06z Sunday and will continue previous shift`s thinking of lowering pops slightly through 06z as any remaining activity dissipates by 12z Sunday. Dry air at the surface should preclude any large hail factors, but small hail can`t be ruled out. Going into Sunday, the front that settles south into the area tonight will stall over the region during the day. Southerly flow at the surface with W/SW flow aloft will create another hot day area- wide. The stalled front will have rw/trw initiating by late afternoon into the early evening hours. The Marginal risk for severe has been expanded to most of the CWA. Wind and hail threats are present with any storms that develop as DCape values around 1800- 2000j/kg and SBCape around 1700j/kg. PW values in KS/NE where best convective chances are will increase to an inch plus, throwing in heavy rainfall potential into the threat mix. Precip expected through 06z Monday before tapering off. Strong southerly flow remains overnight, so no big drops for lows expected compared to the last couple nights. For temps, looking for above normal highs on Sunday with a range in the upper 90s to low 100s. Some locales may be close to tying or even breaking records. Please refer to the Climate section below for area records on this date. With the airmass being dry, looking for heat indices to peak at or below forecasted highs. Overnight lows for tonight will range in the 60s, with warmest areas along/east of Highway 25. For Sunday night, 60s along and west of Highway 27. East of there, upper 60s to mid 70s, warmest along and east of Highway 83. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 223 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 For the long term, we are looking at the potential for showers and thunderstorms daily next week. On Tuesday we begin to see an increase in rain/storm chances as a cold front moves across the area during the afternoon. while an upper trough moves northeast over the Northwest CONUS into Canada while an upper high builds over the Eastern CONUS. A warm front is expected to sit over the far northern portions of the area on Thursday as the shortwaves continue to move over the region and strengthen a lee trough over the Colorado Plains. The best time frame for any showers and storms will be during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday through Friday, with potential for showers and storms throughout the day Wednesday. Temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 80s to mid 90s for highs and the 50s to lower 60s overnight. Wednesday will have even cooler highs thanks to the frontal passage with highs in the 70s to lower 80s and lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Thursday will be a bit warmer with highs in the 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the 60s. Friday looks to be the warmest day of the extended period currently with highs forecast to be in the 90s with overnight lows in the 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 947 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 At this time, both terminals will see VFR conditions. There is a low chance for storms during the second half of the forecast, but with low confidence on timing, will leave off for now. Winds for KGLD, meandering from southwest to southeast around 10kts through the forecast period. LLWS 08z-12z Sunday 200@40kts. Winds for KMCK, southwest 10-15kts through 07z Sunday, then light/variable. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 150 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 The hot, above normal temperatures expected for Sunday, June 16th could bring about some near record/record readings. Here are the records for Sunday: Goodland KS 101F in 2021+ McCook NE 107F in 1946 Hill City KS 112F in 1946 Burlington CO 103F in 1952 Colby KS 107F in 1946 Tribune KS 103F in 1946 Yuma CO 98F in 1995 A (+) denotes a record for multiple years && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...KMK AVIATION...JN CLIMATE...JN