138
FXUS63 KGLD 120807
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
207 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very hot today and Thursday with high temperatures in the
  upper 90s to lower 100s.

- Isolated thunderstorm chances today, with slightly better
  chances Thursday night. A few marginally severe storms
  possible.

- Thunderstorm chances increase on Friday, with a risk for
  severe storms as well as heavy rainfall and flash flooding,
  especially Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Upper ridge over the southern Rockies will result in hot
temperatures today and tomorrow with highs in the upper 90s to
lower 100s. Shortwave trough rotating around the ridge will
result in isolated storm chances today along a surface
trough/dry line feature that will be in eastern areas this
afternoon. Confidence is low that the cap will break, but
environmental parameters do support a severe risk if that
should occur. On Thursday, a cold front will move through early
with winds shifting to northeast then east. Another shortwave
trough rotates around the ridge axis providing synoptic scale
lift. Storms should initiate in the afternoon in southwestern
areas with frontal boundary the favored location, then increase
in coverage Thursday night. Environmental parameters show
moderate instability and deep layer shear of 40-50 kts,
sufficient for a marginal risk for severe storms, though the
overall weak forcing should keep coverage somewhat limited.

On Friday, the ridge axis moves east with a fairly strong
shortwave trough moving out of the Rockies behind it Friday
afternoon and Friday night. Moderate to pockets of strong
instability are forecast with a moist southeasterly flow at the
surface. Deep layer shear will be 30-35 kts. Given the better
forcing with the shortwave, scattered to numerous thunderstorms
will develop, with the potential for a few supercells capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds. Mean storm motion will
be northeast at around 20 kts, but right movers will be slower
at around 10 kts to the east, suggesting the possibility of
locally heavy rainfall/flash flooding with any supercell that
develops. Mean precipitation totals for Friday afternoon through
Friday night range from a quarter to half inch in southwestern
areas to a half inch to an inch in southwest Nebraska. Higher
percentile precipitation amounts in southwest Nebraska and the
Kansas-Nebraska border area range between 2 and 2 and a half
inches, which will be area with the greatest risk for heavy
rainfall Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 102 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

The upper trough moves through the area on Saturday. Sunday-Monday
an upper low enters the Pacific Northwest, progressing eastward
through the first part of the work week, and brushing past the area
towards the end of the long term period. Between the Saturday
system, the Tuesday-Wednesday system centered to our north, and a
few weak shortwaves in between, at least parts of the area hang onto
daily chances for showers/storms, generally around a 20-30% chance.
Temperatures for the period are forecast generally in the upper 80s
and 90s with lows generally in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 930 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR conditions /mostly clear skies/ will rule through the TAF
period at both terminals.. with cloud cover confined to
scattered diurnal cumulus ~12,000 ft AGL (mainly at the GLD
terminal Wed afternoon). South winds at 10-15 knots (this
evening and overnight) will veer to the WSW within an hour or
two after sunrise Wednesday.. further veering to the W-WNW and
increasing to 15-20 knots by early afternoon (~18-20Z). Winds
will abruptly weaken and become variable at/around sunset
Wednesday evening (~01-02Z Thu) as deep vertical mixing abruptly
terminates in concert with waning insolation and the
development/onset of a nocturnal inversion.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...BV