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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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138 FXUS63 KGLD 120807 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 207 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very hot today and Thursday with high temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s. - Isolated thunderstorm chances today, with slightly better chances Thursday night. A few marginally severe storms possible. - Thunderstorm chances increase on Friday, with a risk for severe storms as well as heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially Friday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 200 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Upper ridge over the southern Rockies will result in hot temperatures today and tomorrow with highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Shortwave trough rotating around the ridge will result in isolated storm chances today along a surface trough/dry line feature that will be in eastern areas this afternoon. Confidence is low that the cap will break, but environmental parameters do support a severe risk if that should occur. On Thursday, a cold front will move through early with winds shifting to northeast then east. Another shortwave trough rotates around the ridge axis providing synoptic scale lift. Storms should initiate in the afternoon in southwestern areas with frontal boundary the favored location, then increase in coverage Thursday night. Environmental parameters show moderate instability and deep layer shear of 40-50 kts, sufficient for a marginal risk for severe storms, though the overall weak forcing should keep coverage somewhat limited. On Friday, the ridge axis moves east with a fairly strong shortwave trough moving out of the Rockies behind it Friday afternoon and Friday night. Moderate to pockets of strong instability are forecast with a moist southeasterly flow at the surface. Deep layer shear will be 30-35 kts. Given the better forcing with the shortwave, scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop, with the potential for a few supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Mean storm motion will be northeast at around 20 kts, but right movers will be slower at around 10 kts to the east, suggesting the possibility of locally heavy rainfall/flash flooding with any supercell that develops. Mean precipitation totals for Friday afternoon through Friday night range from a quarter to half inch in southwestern areas to a half inch to an inch in southwest Nebraska. Higher percentile precipitation amounts in southwest Nebraska and the Kansas-Nebraska border area range between 2 and 2 and a half inches, which will be area with the greatest risk for heavy rainfall Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 102 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The upper trough moves through the area on Saturday. Sunday-Monday an upper low enters the Pacific Northwest, progressing eastward through the first part of the work week, and brushing past the area towards the end of the long term period. Between the Saturday system, the Tuesday-Wednesday system centered to our north, and a few weak shortwaves in between, at least parts of the area hang onto daily chances for showers/storms, generally around a 20-30% chance. Temperatures for the period are forecast generally in the upper 80s and 90s with lows generally in the 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 930 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 VFR conditions /mostly clear skies/ will rule through the TAF period at both terminals.. with cloud cover confined to scattered diurnal cumulus ~12,000 ft AGL (mainly at the GLD terminal Wed afternoon). South winds at 10-15 knots (this evening and overnight) will veer to the WSW within an hour or two after sunrise Wednesday.. further veering to the W-WNW and increasing to 15-20 knots by early afternoon (~18-20Z). Winds will abruptly weaken and become variable at/around sunset Wednesday evening (~01-02Z Thu) as deep vertical mixing abruptly terminates in concert with waning insolation and the development/onset of a nocturnal inversion. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...BV