672
FXUS63 KGLD 100722
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
122 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog is possible in western portions of Cheyenne and Kit
  Carson counties in Colorado towards sunrise Monday morning.

- There are a few chances for storms in Eastern Colorado during
  the evening hours on Monday, with a low chance for a severe
  storm or two.

- Potential break in the active weather pattern mid week with
  near triple digit high temperatures.

- Next system looks to impact the area Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 829 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

With the latest guidance showing the potential for some patchy
fog in western portions of Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in
CO after 09z Monday, have introduced some in the forecast
during the 09z-15z Monday timeframe. At this time, it does not
look to push too far east towards the CO/KS border but will
continue to monitor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Early this afternoon an upper level ridge was centered over the Four
Corners Region.  Various areas of cloud cover were rotating around
the ridge.  There continued to be a corridor of low clouds on the
western edge of the high pressure over Eastern CO.

This afternoon a very pleasant day will continue with the light
east to southeast winds.

Tonight the winds will turn to the south as the surface ridge
continues to move east over Nebraska.  Over night low clouds, and
possibly some fog, may form over Eastern CO in response to the
moisture advection.  Any fog will be confined to CO.

Monday will be another very pleasant day.  The ridge currently to
the west will shift slightly to the east as it moves over the
forecast area.  Due to the south winds, WAA will be stronger
allowing for temperatures to be warmer than today.

Monday evening a weak upper level short wave trough will move
through Nebraska, dipping down into the forecast area.  Isentropic
analysis does not show much for lifting/forcing with this short wave
trough.  At the same time the instability will be declining as the
sun sets.  Deep layer shear is 20 kts, which may support strong to
low end severe thunderstorms.  Confidence is 20% for strong to
severe thunderstorms to form due to the rather weak deep layer shear
in place and the declining instability. The upper level short
wave trough will fill as it moves through the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 121 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

During the latter part of the work week an upper low situated off
the Pacific Coast begins its inland progression, eventually breaking
down the ridge, and allowing a return of more active weather to the
area.

Following triple digit heat on Thursday, temperatures at the end of
the work week and over the weekend will lower slightly - into the
mid 80s to low-mid 90s. Overnight lows are forecast in the upper 50s
to middle 60s. After the warming/drying trend with an upper
ridge in place mid-week, shower/storm chances return Thursday
evening-night, continuing each day through the remainder of the
long term period as the next system nears and subsequently
moves through the area. Guidance suggests a potential for strong
to severe storm development in this timeframe, supported by
shortwaves moving through the flow, sufficient instability,
shear, and increased moisture (still looking at PWATs around
1-1.75 inches for Friday). Will continue to monitor as this time
period nears.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 945 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

For KGLD, mainly VFR conditions expected through the forecast
period, except for some MVFR ceilings from 11z-15z Monday.
Winds, southeast around 10kts through 11z Monday, then south
10-15kts. Gusts up to 25-30kts from 15z Mon-00z Tue.

For KMCK, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds,
light/variable through 13z Monday, then south 10-15kts. Gusts
to 25kts from 16z Mon-02z Tue.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JN