119
FXUS63 KGLD 130022
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
622 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures persist across portions of the area on
  Thursday, mainly south of I-70 where highs will reach the
  upper 90s to lower 100s.

- Scattered storms may develop in northeast CO and areas
  situated along/south of I-70 in KS Thursday afternoon. An
  isolated severe storm capable of producing quarter size hail
  and wind gusts up to 65 mph is possible, if storms develop.

- Thunderstorms anticipated to develop in CO Fri afternoon will
  track eastward into KS-NE late Fri aft/eve. Severe storms
  capable of producing large hail/damaging winds are possible,
  in addition to locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash
  flooding, especially Friday eve/night.

- Return of triple digit heat expected on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 114 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Across the region this afternoon, sunny and hot conditions
persist area-wide. Temperatures are currently ranging in the 90s
as of 100 PM MDT. there is a surface trough currently
traversing the area, providing a southerly fetch for areas east
of Highway 25, and a west- northwest flow behind it. Gusts
around 30 mph are occurring on either side of the boundary.

Weather concerns in the short term will focus on some isolated
rw/trw potential this evening and again later tonight. This will
be followed by a chance for severe storms Thursday
afternoon/evening.

First off, a surface trough has been slowly traversing the CWA
through the day and is currently pushing through the Highway 25
area, based on current wind regime. East of there, especially
for locales east of Highway 83, there still remains some decent
dewpts in the lower to mid 60s. While currently stable, DCape
values on soundings does show some instability, so have followed
the NamNest and continued a 15 pop for isolated coverage in the
southeast(Gove. Sheridan/Graham counties mainly). Any storms
could produce some strong gusts with inverted-v profiles.

With a strong ridge aloft over the south-central Rockies
providing westerly downslope flow to aid in this warmup,
guidance puts a weak shortwave over the north/east portion of
the ridge towards the 06z- 09z Thursday timeframe up into
portion of northeast Colorado. With weak instability/moisture
available, continued isolated wording for a 15 pop for a rw/trw.
Winds would be main threat concern.

Going into thursday, the aforementioned upper ridge begins a
slow trek eastward into the southern Plains for
afternoon/evening hours. This will allow a stronger shortwave to
work off the central Rockies during the afternoon hours, and
interact with a surface low over southeast Colorado, with a
front extending eastward into Kansas. CAMs are showing rw/trw
potential to develop from west to east over the CWA. Strong to
severe storms are expected. Current guidance has DCape values
around 1800-2000 j/kg by 21z. MUCape/SBCape values are around
1700-1900 j/kg. As a result, SPC now has much of the tri- state
region under a Marginal Risk for severe storm, with hail and
wind main threats. The activity does diminish from west to east
overnight.

For temps, looking for lows tonight to drop into a range from
the lower to mid 60s west of Highway 25, into the mid and upper
60s east of Highway 25. A few locales east of Highway 83 may
only drop into the 70F range. Going into Thursday, another hot
day(850 mb temps +28c to +33c before front gets established) on
tap with daytime highs in the mid 90s to lower 100s. Hottest
areas along/south of I- 70. This will give way to overnight lows
Thursday night in a range from the lower 60s west into the
upper 60s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 129 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Friday morning, the Tri-State area will start out under a
strong 250mb ridge with a closed low over the Four Corners
region. As the day progresses, the low will move to the east-
northeast and move over the CWA Saturday mid-day. This will give
the region an organized system to produce storms Friday and
into Saturday. In the lower-levels, an 850mb high will be
sitting over the Mississippi River Valley working to fuel the
LLJ and bring moisture into the region. This setup is not
looking to be as strong as what we had a couple of weeks ago,
but the increased moisture will cause some concern for flooding
with the storms.

As far as severe parameters, we could see anywhere from 3,000
to 4,500 J/kg MUCAPE, PWATS above 1.25 inches, exceeding
convective temperatures, LCLs around 2-2.5 km, and EBWD shear
around 20-25 kts. This type of environment would be supportive
of hail, strong winds, and heavy rainfall. The biggest limiting
factor, according to the forecast parameters, would be the
shear, it`s a bit on the low side. The shear is low due to
fairly light winds in the mid-layer (10-20 kts between 300-500
mb). We could see clusters of cells that form off of each other
and become an MCS type event. The precipitation could last into
mid-day Saturday, or even kick start some additional
precipitation Saturday evening.

Sunday, the low will clear the area and we will be under weak
southwesterly flow aloft. This will give us about a 15-20% daily
chance of precipitation due to shortwaves in the evenings, but
nothing highly organized is expected until the weak flow is
disrupted, likely Tuesday afternoon. Around this time, the
pressure gradient tightens up as the low over the NW CONUS
pushes farther inland. This would work to amplify any
disturbances and increase chances for PoPs. By mid-next week, we
could see the low moving into the Great Plains and sending a
cold front through the region. This would spark up some storms,
but more importantly, it would start cooling temperatures down
some.

High temperatures until mid-next week look to be in the low 90s
to low 100s. After the cold front moves through, around
Tuesday, we will likely only warm into the 80s. Overnight
temperatures will follow a similar pattern and drop into the 60s
each night, save for Sunday night. Sunday night, additional
cloud cover and fairly strong winds from the south are expected
to keep temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s. Gusts overnight
could get up to 30 kts. Behind the cold front, lows will cool
down into the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 558 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

GLD: VFR conditions /mostly clear skies/ will prevail through
the TAF period. Light and variable winds -- associated with a
weak surface low over the region -- will predominate through the
majority of the TAF period, shifting to the NE-ENE at 12-17
knots mid-late Thursday afternoon (21-00Z). While isolated to
scattered diurnal convection cannot be ruled out ~21-00Z..
confidence in convective development is low enough to preclude
explicit mention with the 00Z TAF issuance.

MCK: VFR conditions and mostly clear skies will prevail through
the TAF period. Light and variable winds this evening and
overnight will shift to the NW-N at 12-17 knots shortly after
sunrise.. gradually veering to the NNE and NE Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Vincent