735
FXUS62 KGSP 120556
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
156 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will continue through the week under weak high
pressure. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected early next week as a weak cold front approaches from the
north.  The hottest days are expected to be Friday and Saturday,
then the heat should continue into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 155 AM EDT Wednesday: Starting to see the low- and mid-level
clouds retreat northward with some clearing over the Upstate and
northeast Georgia. The one monkey wrench being thrown into the
forecast is a band of cirrus moving in from the southwest. Adjusting
sky cover and temperatures based on this development. The forecast
still remains on track.

Otherwise, an upper trough situated north of the CWA shifts eastward
as a weakening ridge axis moves toward the Midwest. Thus, the
subtropical jet continues to settle northward, setting the stage
for a typical summerlike pattern. Flow aloft starts to become
more broad and W/NW by the end of the period. Sfc high pressure
continues to build into the southeast and increased height rises
contribute to a warming pattern into the extended period. As the sfc
pressure amplifies eastward, sfc winds will toggle E/SE with a short
lived moisture fetch from the Atlantic Ocean, at least through the
near term. No precipitation is expected during this time, given
the strong subsidence and stout inversion layer aloft shunting
rising parcels from the BL. Quiet forecast overall. Temperatures
overnight will be closer to climo and highs on Wednesday start to
rebound with temps in the upper 80s east of the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 pm EDT Tuesday: Upper heights will slowly rise through the
short range period. A seasonally dry air mass will remain in place
across the area keeping skies mostly sunny/clear and limiting any
convection to isolated ridgetop showers during peak heating. Thus,
we expect high temperatures to get higher each day. Expect highs in
the Piedmont to be near 90 on Thursday and in the lower to middle
90s on Friday. Mountain valley highs will be in the mid 80s Thursday
and near 90 on Friday. Friday`s readings will be nearly 10 degrees
above climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 pm EDT Tuesday: Upper heights will continue to rise
through the weekend into early next week. However, surface high
pressure will push into the northeastern states bringing an easterly
component to the low level flow in this area. This will act to bring
some moisture back into the area and cool temperatures down some.
Readings will likely still be above climo, especially this weekend
but not as hot as Friday. With the moisture returning, we will see a
return to more typical mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms
Sunday into next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast period. Ongoing stratocu will hold steady over the next
few hours before scouring out around daybreak or shortly after,
which is reflected in the prevailing lines at all TAF sites. Model
guidance still hints at some flavor of mountain valley fog, but
not expecting it to fill in at KAVL as cloud cover will hold fog
development until later in the overnight period. Winds will be
light and variable overnight with 060-090 cigs underneath the
current cloud deck. High pressure will remain in control through
the rest of the period and keep winds on the lighter side with
mainly a south to southeasterly component. FEW to SCT fair weather
cu will develop once again during peak heating with upper-level
cirrus hovering overhead as well.

Outlook: Surface high pressure remains over the area through the
end of the week with minimal chance for convection and associated
flight restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/CAC/CP
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...CAC