Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
735 FXUS62 KGSP 120556 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 156 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions will continue through the week under weak high pressure. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected early next week as a weak cold front approaches from the north. The hottest days are expected to be Friday and Saturday, then the heat should continue into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 155 AM EDT Wednesday: Starting to see the low- and mid-level clouds retreat northward with some clearing over the Upstate and northeast Georgia. The one monkey wrench being thrown into the forecast is a band of cirrus moving in from the southwest. Adjusting sky cover and temperatures based on this development. The forecast still remains on track. Otherwise, an upper trough situated north of the CWA shifts eastward as a weakening ridge axis moves toward the Midwest. Thus, the subtropical jet continues to settle northward, setting the stage for a typical summerlike pattern. Flow aloft starts to become more broad and W/NW by the end of the period. Sfc high pressure continues to build into the southeast and increased height rises contribute to a warming pattern into the extended period. As the sfc pressure amplifies eastward, sfc winds will toggle E/SE with a short lived moisture fetch from the Atlantic Ocean, at least through the near term. No precipitation is expected during this time, given the strong subsidence and stout inversion layer aloft shunting rising parcels from the BL. Quiet forecast overall. Temperatures overnight will be closer to climo and highs on Wednesday start to rebound with temps in the upper 80s east of the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 pm EDT Tuesday: Upper heights will slowly rise through the short range period. A seasonally dry air mass will remain in place across the area keeping skies mostly sunny/clear and limiting any convection to isolated ridgetop showers during peak heating. Thus, we expect high temperatures to get higher each day. Expect highs in the Piedmont to be near 90 on Thursday and in the lower to middle 90s on Friday. Mountain valley highs will be in the mid 80s Thursday and near 90 on Friday. Friday`s readings will be nearly 10 degrees above climo. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 140 pm EDT Tuesday: Upper heights will continue to rise through the weekend into early next week. However, surface high pressure will push into the northeastern states bringing an easterly component to the low level flow in this area. This will act to bring some moisture back into the area and cool temperatures down some. Readings will likely still be above climo, especially this weekend but not as hot as Friday. With the moisture returning, we will see a return to more typical mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms Sunday into next Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Ongoing stratocu will hold steady over the next few hours before scouring out around daybreak or shortly after, which is reflected in the prevailing lines at all TAF sites. Model guidance still hints at some flavor of mountain valley fog, but not expecting it to fill in at KAVL as cloud cover will hold fog development until later in the overnight period. Winds will be light and variable overnight with 060-090 cigs underneath the current cloud deck. High pressure will remain in control through the rest of the period and keep winds on the lighter side with mainly a south to southeasterly component. FEW to SCT fair weather cu will develop once again during peak heating with upper-level cirrus hovering overhead as well. Outlook: Surface high pressure remains over the area through the end of the week with minimal chance for convection and associated flight restrictions. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...ARK/CAC/CP SHORT TERM...SCW LONG TERM...SCW AVIATION...CAC