Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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067 FXUS64 KHGX 270500 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1200 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 412 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...Heat Advisory in Effect Until 10 PM CDT Monday... A heat advisory remains in place through at least tomorrow evening, as our hot holiday weekend continues. Tomorrow appears to be the last day of peak heat in this stretch, but temperatures will only gradually back their way down to more seasonable levels through the week. Regardless of the exact numbers on the board, heat safety will be a front-of-mind concern through Memorial Day, and will have to be considered to some extent for the rest of the summer, unless someone wants to host an all-summer, walk-in freezer party. Someone? Anyone? Please? If heading to the Gulf is your solution to beat the heat, great! But also please think about dangerous water conditions thanks to persistent onshore winds, pushing tidal levels above expected astronomical tides and creating high rip current risk. Rip currents this weekend are strong enough that it has already caused tragedy, and we hope that it will not cause any more. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday Night) Issued at 412 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Tranquil weather conditions can be expected tonight with light south to southeasterly winds. It will be warm and muggy for the overnight to early morning hours as the lows only make it into the mid to upper 70s inland and the dewpoints remain just a few degrees lower. Some areas of patchy fog is possible over portions of Southeast Texas. Overcast skies will redevelop overnight and gradually lift and scatter out during morning hours. As the day progresses, an increase in heat related impacts is expected as highs rise into the mid to upper 90s and heat indices peak near 109-113 for much of the inland portions of Southeast TX. A Heat Advisory will continue in effect until 10 PM Monday for all of Southeast Texas. It is important you take the necessary precautions and/or make the proper preparations if you plan to work or spend time outdoors. Remember to practice heat safety and stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day, move activities indoors if necessary, and never leave children or pets unattended in vehicles. Remember, if it is too hot for the palm of your hand, then the ground is too hot for your pets` paws. With respect to rain chances, the morning hours should remain tranquil if the cap holds in place. There will be a few upper level disturbances embedded in the quasi-zonal flow passing though during the day if the cap weakens, it could be enough to trigger a few isolated showers and/or thunderstorms later in the afternoon or evening. There is also the chance for storms firing up over Central Texas during the afternoon along a dryline/cold front and could move south southeast and into the northern and western counties. Some of these storms could become strong to severe, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Although conditions do not look as favorable for tornadoes, a brief isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Based on the latest SPC Convective Outlook, all of Southeast Texas, except the coastal locations, is currently under a Marginal Risk (risk level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms. Benign and warm conditions will prevail Monday night into early Tuesday morning with light southeasterly winds and lows in the 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 412 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 One main feature of the long term is that temperatures gradually work their way down to seasonable...ish through the week. Ensemble mean 850 temps stay above the 90th percentile through Tuesday afternoon, but slip below that for the rest of the week. A weak, backdoor "cold" front drifts in from the northeast as well, but that`s probably not going to provide a whole lot of relief. 500 mb heights remain above average as a mid-level trough builds to the west. This will put us in a northwest flow pattern aloft, while winds wobble between easterly and southeasterly for the mid-week. This northwest flow pattern also brings us to the other main feature of the long term pattern, and that is the end of this prolonged stretch of largely fair weather, and an increase in the potential for showers and storms to develop - mainly initiating to our northwest in the afternoon, and making their way into the area in the evening. This setup tends to be *highly* conditional with its threat for stronger to severe storms. The summery conditions mean we will have plenty of instability to tap into with the peak heating of the day, however we are also likely to be in an otherwise less favorable environment compared to where daily storms get started. As a result, we will surely have a day or two where all the storms die before reaching our area, leaving a nice, warm evening for us all. But other days, isolated to scattered storms will be able move into Southeast Texas, and though they will weaken as they push through the area, we could still see a couple strong to severe storms before they die out. Of course, folks in the far northern/northwestern part of our area will see the highest risk for storms, closer to where the day`s activity initiates. Closer to the coast, the threat will diminish. Another thing we`ll need to consider is the timing of quick, shortwave troughs shooting through the broader upper pattern. Should they line up well with the diurnal pattern there will be enhancement of that particular day`s storms, thanks to the differential vorticity advection helping support vertical motion. Unfortunately, trying to predict something so transient at long range is just asking to look dumb. So I take the conservative approach of splattering some sort of PoPs all over the long term, but generally peaking in the afternoon/early evening with the diurnal pattern. As we go through the week and predictability of these smaller disturbances increases, we`ll be able to refine things more. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 We will continue to transition over to mostly MVFR ceilings through the overnight hours across the area as mostly light S/SE winds pre- vail. These lower CIGS will be slow to clear Mon morning especially closer to the coast. Further inland, a weakening cap and additional disturbances moving in from the west could produce scattered storms over our W/NW counties tomorrow afternoon/evening. Near-term models appear to be keeping with this trend of increasing POPs...but still going to keep the mention of precipitation out at this time. 41 && .MARINE... Issued at 412 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Moderate south winds and 4 to 6 foot seas are expected through tonight. Conditions are such that small craft will want to exercise caution through at least this evening. Winds and seas decrease somewhat on Monday and Tuesday, followed by a slight dip in wave heights. During the second half of the week, moderate to occasionally strong southeast winds and 4 to 6 foot seas resume with a long fetch setting up across the Gulf. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible by Wednesday and Thursday. At the shores, beach hazard statements remain in place for tidal levels above astronomical norms, and && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 76 96 75 93 / 10 10 20 20 Houston (IAH) 79 97 77 93 / 0 20 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 80 90 79 87 / 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Monday for TXZ163-164-176>179-195- 196-198-200-214-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Monday for TXZ197-199- 210>213-226-227. Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for TXZ436>439. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....Luchs AVIATION...41 MARINE...Luchs