Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
134 FXUS64 KHGX 252349 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 649 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Tranquil but hot weather conditions are expected to prevail for the rest of the weekend as broad high pressure remains over Mexico and capping dominates the local weather pattern. Although slightly drier air is expected this evening into tonight along with a bit of a breeze, conditions will remain rather warm and heat related impacts can still occur. The lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 70s with some coastal locations staying in the low 80s. Skies will become overcast tonight into Sunday morning and gradually lift and scatter out after sunrise. Winds will strengthen during the morning as a low level jet moves over Southeast TX. By Sunday afternoon, the highs will be back in the low to mid 90s. The risk for heat related impacts is expected to rise as a surge of low level moisture increases PWs up into the 1.5-2.0 inch range and dewpoints stay in the mid to upper 80s for much of the day. Several locations across Southeast TX may experience heat indices between 106-110 deg F on Sunday, thus, a Heat Advisory has been issued for much of Southeast Texas. It is important you take the necessary precautions and/or make the proper preparations if you plan to work or spend time outdoors. Remember to practice heat safety and stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day, move activities indoors if necessary, and never leave children or pets unattended in vehicles. Remember, if it is too hot for the palm of your hand, then the ground is too hot for your pets` paws. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 The strong mid/upper ridge over Mexico will back westward while a ridge axis over western CONUS will push eastward, resulting in a WNW UL flow pattern through at least the first half of the week. Mid/upper heights will slowly decrease, likely helping to dial down the heat as the week progresses. That being said, Memorial Day will be quite hot with widespread inland temperatures in the mid 90s. A few spots could reach the upper 90s while the coast remains in the upper 80s to near 90. 70s dew points will push heat index values well over 100F and possibly over 110F. Our experimental HeatRisk guidance is showing an Extreme Risk (Level 4 of 4) of excessive heat. A Heat Advisory has been issued for Monday across much of our inland CWA. Practicing heat safety will be must, especially if you plan on spending time outdoors for the holiday. In addition, there is an elevated risk of rip currents. Swim with caution (and preferably near a life guard and away from piers and jetties) if you`re at the beach on Memorial Day. As mentioned above, the heat should slowly ease as the week progresses. By the middle to later portion of the week, inland afternoon highs may only be in the upper 80s to low 90s w/ heat index values close to 100F. But this pattern shift will also feature an increased chance of late afternoon and evening thunderstorms. During the Monday to Wednesday time frame, disturbances embedded in the flow aloft will likely ignite afternoon convection to the north and west of our CWA. Considering the WNW flow aloft, we cannot rule out these storms pushing into southeast Texas by the late afternoon or evening. A few thunderstorms could become strong given the instability that will likely be in place. Confidence in the thunderstorm forecast is too low to pin point a severe weather risk. However, these WNW to NW flow patterns in late spring / early summer are always something you want to monitor closely. Model guidance wasn`t too helpful in determining PoPs. Generally speaking, the best chance of a thunderstorm will be across our western and northern counties. But areas farther south and east are not out of the woods either. The flow pattern becomes more zonal by Thursday and Friday. But that may not stop the parade of disturbances aloft. Therefore, the risk of afternoon and evening thunderstorms remains in place through the end of the week. Self && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 647 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Another night with SCT to OVC MVFR conditions is expected across all terminals through mid/late morning. Then, VFR conditions can be expected through the remainder of the period. Winds will generally remain from the south- southeast at around 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots can be expected in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Moderate south to southeast winds and 4 to 6 foot seas are expected through tomorrow. Winds and seas decrease somewhat on Monday and Tuesday. During the second half of the week, moderate to occasionally strong southeast winds and 4 to 6 foot seas resume. Caution flags may be warranted by the second half of the week. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible by Wednesday and Thursday. Self && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 76 94 76 95 / 10 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 78 94 78 97 / 10 10 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 80 90 80 87 / 10 10 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ176>178- 195>200-210>213-226-227-235. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ176>178- 195>200-210>213-226-227-235. Beach Hazards Statement through late Sunday night for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....Self AVIATION...JM MARINE...Self