240
FXUS64 KHGX 101921
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
221 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Seeing scattered showers near the coast and across southeast
areas early this afternoon. Also seeing scattered showers and storms
across northern areas of southeast Texas in association with a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary. I am expecting to see isolated
convection linger into the early eve hours, especially across well inland
central/northern areas. By mid evening, inland activity should have
dissipated. Will see scattered showers develop near the coast again
tomorrow morning, with activity spreading further inland with heating.
The frontal boundary will likely sag south some tonight and then
dissipate tomorrow. Still ample moisture around tomorrow with PW values
peaking at close to 2 inches, so another aft with scattered storms
is expected.

On Tuesday night a mid/upper level disturbance will approach from the
northwest, and this feature will provide additional lift for showers
and storms. It is possible some organized convection associated with this
feature will move into western areas of southeast Texas after midnight
and towards Wednesday morning.


For temperatures, highs will be tempered by clouds/diurnal storms, with
max temps peaking in the 90-95 range tomorrow across inland areas.
Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 70s for a most of the
area with near 80 expected at the coast.

Wood


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

The SE Texas atmosphere should still feel the influence from
Tuesday`s mid/upper level disturbance, likely resulting in at
least some widely scattered shower/thunderstorm activity. There
continues to be some uncertainty regarding the areal coverage of
the rain/storms. We opted for 20-40 PoPs, with the highest values
near the I-10 corridor and the lowest across our northern Piney
Woods counties. Locally heavier thunderstorms are possible. The
trough pushes east as ridging builds over Texas towards week`s
end. We left some low PoPs in the forecast for Thursday and
Saturday near the coast due to possible isolated sea breeze
induced showers/storms. Wednesday-Saturday temperatures are
expected to be near to above average with plentiful humidity.
Highs are expected to average in the low 90s on Wednesday, then
mid 90s Thursday- Saturday. Couldn`t rule out upper 90s in a few
spots while coastal highs hover around 90. Overnight lows will
predominantly be in the 70s.

The pattern could become wetter early next week as a trough axis
over the eastern Gulf retrogrades westward towards the western
Gulf. Therefore, we introduced 20-40 PoPs on Sunday. We kept
Sunday`s inland highs in the mid 90s. If rain chances increase
further, then perhaps we can shave a few degrees off those
temperatures.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Seeing SCT SHRA and isolated TSRA across southeast and northern
areas. With further heating, will likely see more TSRA coverage
later this aft, especially central areas. Have VCSH and VCTS at
TAF sites this aft. Expecting most activity to dissipate in the
23Z to 1Z window. Tomorrow, expect another day of SCT SHRA/TSRA
with heating. Also expecting some MVFR BR at CXO and LBX late
tonight.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Generally light to moderate onshore flow and low sea should
prevail through the end of the week. There will be a daily risk of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Isolated stronger
storms capable of locally higher winds and seas cannot be ruled
out. A trough axis over the eastern Gulf of Mexico may push
westward and bring a better chance of showers and thunderstorms by
early next week. The resulting increasing could increase winds and
seas as well. However, much uncertainty exists in the forecast
that far out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  91  73  87 /  30  40  30  30
Houston (IAH)  75  91  74  89 /  20  30  10  40
Galveston (GLS)  79  88  79  88 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Wood
MARINE...Self