Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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309 FXUS64 KHGX 040748 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 248 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 248 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Not much in the way of change to the overall synoptic pattern is expected in the immediate term with hot and humid conditions prevailing throughout the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. As a midlevel ridge continues to build gradually into the area, scattered storm chances remain in the forecast as a series of midlevel disturbances pass just to our north. HiRes models show convective initiation to our north both late this morning and tomorrow morning, each associated with a passing midlevel shortwave. While SBCAPE values in excess of 4000 J/kg at times and abundant moisture availability (PWs ~2.0 in) will support some isolated storms this afternoon, strong to severe storm potential will generally be inhibited by limited effective layer shear and the presence of an inversion around 850mb. Upstream conditions tomorrow are a bit more favorable, with models continuing to indicate a linear mode of convection as a MCS pushes towards SE TX just after sunrise. That being said, a continued lack of deep shear as well as a robust capping inversion at the time of the system`s arrival will likely keep severe storm development at bay. With high temperatures today approaching the mid-90s and dew points remaining high in the upper 70s, heat index values may reach as high as 110 in some locations to the west of the I-45 corridor. Furthermore, WBGT values in the 87-89 range this afternoon indicate an elevated heat impact risk, though this risk may be mitigated somewhat by winds in the vicinity of 15 mph. Nonetheless, we have gone ahead and issued a Heat Advisory for much of the Western third of the area for this afternoon. Another Advisory may be needed tomorrow, though heat stress may be mitigated further by expanding afternoon cloud cover. Low temperatures will remain in the upper 70s to near 80. Cady && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 248 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 On Thursday, a mid-level high begins to expand northward from northern Mexico into the Four Corners region. This`ll place Southeast Texas on the eastern edge of ridging aloft, and most of the area will be under the influence of a subsidence inversion layer aloft which will keep rain chances on the slim side. There will still be a few instances where rain chances approach 20% as some embedded shortwaves pass through and even a frontal boundary partially moving through portions of the Piney Woods on late Friday courtesy of an upper level low moving through the Great Lakes region. Through the weekend though, rain chances are only 20% at most in the afternoon hours with areas north of I-10 and east of I- 45 having the best potential for seeing showers and storms. It wouldn`t be out of the realm of possibilities for the seabreeze to kick up a few storms as well, but it`ll have to battle the cap to get things going. It`s June, so if the rain chances are low then that must mean the temperatures are hot and that is indeed the case! High temperatures throughout the long term period will be in the low to mid 90s with low temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 70s. The humidity won`t be going anywhere unfortunately, so it`ll continue to feel like 100+F (heat index) in the afternoons. Rain chances become a little bit more notable early next week as the main ridge axis shifts further west, which will allow for Southeast Texas to be more in the path of incoming shortwaves from a rather robust upper level low that looks to sit over the northeastern CONUS for multiple days...yep the same one that was mentioned in the first paragraph. Batiste && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Cigs should lower to MVFR overnight with continued light south to southeast winds. Winds will be higher near the coast. MVFR cigs should lift to VFR by mid-morning while winds increase from the south. Winds will eventually become more southeasterly later in the afternoon. MVFR cigs may return by Tuesday evening. Self && .MARINE... Issued at 248 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Small craft should continue to exercise caution through midweek as moderate onshore flow persists with winds around 15-20 knots and seas around 6 ft in the Gulf waters. Winds and seas may briefly flirt with advisory criteria at times. This persistent onshore flow will continue to carry a high risk of rip currents throughout much of the work week. We`ll also have to monitor for the potential for minor coastal flooding with water levels approaching 3.0-3.5 ft above MLLW during times of high tide through midweek. Following midweek, winds and seas begin to subside. Batiste && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 248 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 There are currently four River Flood Warnings in effect: three along the Trinity River and one on the Navasota River. The Navasota River near Normangee (currently in minor flood stage) crested in moderate flood stage over the weekend and will continue on a gradual recession and eventually fall below flood stage around midweek. The Trinity River near Riverside and near Moss Bluff will remain in minor flood stage until further notice. The Trinity River near Liberty is currently rising in minor flood stage and will also remain there until further notice. There isn`t a River Flood Warning out for the Trinity River near Crockett as of yet, but the latest forecasts indicate that it will rise into minor flood stage at the end of the week. Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as river flooding continues. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 94 77 93 76 / 10 10 20 10 Houston (IAH) 92 79 94 78 / 10 10 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 87 81 87 81 / 10 10 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ195>198-210>212-226-235. High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Wednesday morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cady LONG TERM....Batiste AVIATION...Self MARINE...Batiste