647
FXUS64 KHGX 062052
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
352 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024


After yesterday`s storms, we a finally getting some calm weather
conditions! Our winds are going to be variable and range from 5-10
mph through Friday early morning. Around this time we should expect
some light patchy fog and a reduction of winds to around 5 mph or
less. We will also have a high humidity range of 85-90% on Friday
morning which will make for muggy conditions. Patchy fog should end
around or just after sunrise. Variable winds are expected to
increase to around 5-10 mph Friday/Friday Night with negligible
precipitation chances. In terms of clouds, skies over SE Texas will
be mostly clear with generally high clouds present. Temperatures are
expected to reach a high of 90-95F on Friday. For our lows, both
Thursday and Friday night have similar patterns, with the Crockett
area having a low around 70F and areas closer to the gulf having a
low around 80F. With these hot temperatures, make sure to stay cool
and safe!

Thompson/Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Surface high and upper level ridge will continue to dominate the
weather pattern this weekend; leading to dry, hot and humid
conditions. Mostly sunny skies and warm southerly surface winds
will keep highs into the low to mid 90s on Saturday. The
combination of hot and humid conditions will once again result in
heat index values in the triple digits. The upper ridge axis
should move a bit closer to our forecast area by Sunday; however,
it will be weakening as it does so thanks to a deepening upper low
over the High Plains. FLow pattern aloft will gradually become
more zonal, opening the highway for different vort
maxes/shortwaves throughout the week. Precipitation chances, on
the other hand, will remain on the lower side on Sunday given
decent subsidence/dry-sub cloud layer at mid levels.

By Monday, global models continue to bring increasing rain/storm
chances along and ahead of a surface low and its associated
frontal boundary. Passing shortwaves aloft, deepening Gulf
moisture and convergence at the surface will be enough for
scattered to widespread thunderstorms. At the moment, the risk of
severe weather or excessive rainfall remains very low. Beyond
Tuesday, daily rain and storm chances are possible as the
aforementioned boundary lingers along the Southeastern CONUS/Gulf
coast and multiple disturbances aloft move through the area. The
best rain chances will generally be south of I-10. Temperatures
will generally be near average for this time of year. Highs will
climb into the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows mainly in the
low to mid 70s.


JM


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Looks to be a pretty calm day with winds of 10kts or less. Mist
is expected to arrive around 6z, bringing with it clear skies and
light, variable winds. This mist should only cause a slight
reduction in visibility, but will go back to P6SM around 12z. In
terms of cloud cover, some mostly clear skies with a few high
clouds possible.

Thompson/Adams

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Surface high pressure over the southern Plains will continue to
bring light northeast to southeast winds across the Upper TX coast
this evening. As the high pressure slowly moves east, winds will
generally remain onshore. Therefore, light onshore winds, low seas
and a relatively dry conditions can be expected into the weekend.
Rain and storm chances return early Monday as a cold front moves
through the area. There is still uncertainty on whether this front
will make it to the coast or not, but confidence in scattered
thunderstorms on Monday is increasing. After Tuesday, light to
occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas from 2 to 3ft can be
expected. Conditions along the beach, especially along all Gulf-
facing beaches continue to be dangerous due to strong rip
currents. This threat should persist at least through Friday.


JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  71  95  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  74  96  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  79  89  79  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Thompson/Adams
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Thompson/Adams
MARINE...JM