Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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871 FXUS64 KHUN 041125 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 625 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 The decayed MCS over MS will bring showers into the TN Valley this morning. Current radar trends suggest it reaches NW AL shortly before sunrise. Expecting some redevelopment later this morning as a shortwave scoots through the TN Valley. Behind this, the high-res models and latest NBM run is favoring a drier afternoon. Kept with guidance and have lower POPs in through this afternoon into tonight. Main threats with any storms are gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Would not rule out a few storms producing stronger wind gusts. Highs today will be in the lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase through the night becoming medium chances (60%) by Wednesday morning. An upper level low sliding along the U.S and Canadian border will hit a blocking pattern as it reaches just NW of the Great Lakes. The associated sfc low will have a cold front draped through the Midwest and back into the ArkLaTex region. Another shortwave will traverse through the region to help provide prefrontal convection on Wednesday. Greatest coverage of showers and storms are expected Wednesday afternoon when high chances (80%) are anticipated. Forecast soundings continue to show PWATS reaching 1.7-1.9" (75th-99th percentile) and SBCAPE values 2k J/kg or higher. The rounds of convection will be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall. With little deep layer shear, not expecting stronger storms at this time, however will be monitoring for any hydro concerns. The front itself does not push through until Thursday and it will taper off precip chances throughout the day. The drier air behind the front will provide a decrease in cloud cover and no precip by Thursday night. The rounds of rainfall and cloudy conditions on Wednesday will place daytime highs in the mid 80s with lows in the upper 60s. Highs will be slightly warmer on THursday in the upper 80s and lows in the low/mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Will remain under the influence of northwesterly flow aloft for the long term period, as Friday still looks dry in the wake of a cold front. High pressure will build to our northwest during the day, and afternoon highs will be on the "cool" side topping out in the low 80s. Trends have favored dry weather lasting through Saturday, as the first of a series of weaker shortwave disturbances has slowed down, remaining west of the area until Sunday morning. Temperatures will be similar on Saturday, topping out in the low 80s as clouds begin to gradually increase from the west into the evening hours. The aforementioned shortwave will help bring better moisture to the area, but will likely remain rain free until Sunday when a stronger trough digs into the Midwest, and rich Gulf moisture increases ahead of a cold front. Models diverge a bit at this range, but right now it looks like we will see at least low chances (20-30%) for rain and storms Sunday through Monday, though questions remain on if this will be one round or multiple depending on the evolution of the trough and associated front. Highs will remain near the mid 80s through Monday with lows in the 60s each night. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Low confidence forecast for this TAF package as showers/storms have not materialized upstream as anticipated. A few VCSH have popped up this morning and now anticipating isolated coverage throughout this morning and into this afternoon. Greater coverage of showers and storms should slide in ~04/05Z and bring MVFR conditions til the end of the TAF period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...JMS SHORT TERM....JMS LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...JMS