470
FXUS63 KICT 241123
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
623 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather episode possible Saturday evening into early
  Sun morning with all hazards possible.

- Mild and mostly dry conditions to start next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave lifting across
Western SD with some additional shortwave energy about to come
onshore over Northern/Central CA. At the surface, a cold front
extends from NW IA into Central KS and down into the TX
Panhandle, with storms along this feature over eastern
Nebraska/northeast KS.

Line of storms will continue tracking east this morning
affecting northeast KS into MO, with a few storms also possible
across southeast KS in an area of decent 850-700mb moisture
transport. It`s possible that at least some strong storms could be
possible with this activity. Cold front will continue pushing
through the forecast area during the afternoon hours and will be
east of the area before storms develop again along in. By 12z
Sat surface high will be centered over northeast MO/eastern IA
with two western CONUS impulses; one over the Desert Southwest
and the other approaching the Great Basin.

Dewpoints across the forecast area on Sat morning are expected
to be in the 40s to around 50 degrees. As the upper level energy
approaches the Plains, low level moisture will rapidly lift
north with dewpoints around 70 possible over southern and
southeast KS by 00z Sun. The NAM has the dryline further west
compared to the GFS and to a lesser degree the ECMWF. The big
question for Sat will be if and how many storms are able to
develop along the dryline. The negatives will be the "all of a
sudden" arrival of the low level moisture along with warming mid
level temps. However, there is no doubt there will be a fairly
pronounced shortwave moving out across the area with plenty of
large scale lift. At this time feel that if a storm develops
along the dryline, it would likely not be more than a few storms
and with extreme instability and great effective deep layer
shear, supercells will be likely with all hazards likely. Timing
is one aspect of this system where confidence is increasing
with the thinking that storms will likely hold off until after
5 pm and possibly after 7 pm.

The highest confidence in widespread storm development with this
system will be over southeast Nebraska/northeast KS where a
classic elevated convective regime will setup in an area of
impressive 850-700mb theta-e advection. Any storms that develop
on the dryline would continue and possibly become more
widespread overnight as they track east due to cold pool
interactions. At this point, damaging winds would become the
bigger threat.

Cold front will push through the forecast area on Sun as
shortwave energy slides across the Central Plains. Cold front
is expected to be east of the forecast area before storms form
along it. There is decent agreement between the ECMWF and GFS in
an upper low tracking out of Western Ontario and into the Upper
Mississippi Valley by Mon evening. This impulse will then rotate
into the Ohio Valley by Tue evening. This will allow for fairly
mild temps to overspread the area for the start of the work week
with dry conditions also expected through at least Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A cold front is sweeping across the region and is located along
the Kansas Turnpike as of 1120Z. A wind shift accompanies this
front with southerly winds around 15 to 20 knots before frontal
passage, and 15 to 25 knots out of the northwest after frontal
passage.

MVFR cigs and perhaps a couple of showers and maybe a
thunderstorm are possible through about 17Z across portions of
southeast Kansas (mainly impacting site KCNU).

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the entire area
after 17Z today through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JC