947
FXUS62 KILM 141353
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
953 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A tropical disturbance located a few hundred miles east of Cape
Fear will move farther offshore today. A cold front will push
through the Carolinas Saturday, followed by high pressure
building in from the north much of next week. Seasonably warm
temperatures are expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
12z soundings from MHX and CHS matched almost perfectly with the
06z GFS forecast thermal profiles between 1000-850 mb, lending
high confidence to temperature forecasts today: upper 80s at the
beaches to 92-94 inland. Dry weather is expected, although
we`ll be monitoring enhanced seabreeze convergence in the Cape
Fear area this afternoon that might convince some towering
cumulus to develop despite dry mid level conditions.

North winds gusting to almost 20 knots across the outer
portions of the coastal waters are due to the circulation
around tropical disturbance 90L. These winds should diminish
this afternoon as the system moves farther away from the area.

Changes with this forecast were all minor.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Quiet conditions will continue through early Saturday morning
as a weak pressure pattern has settled across the area. Highs
today will be in the lower 90s with an assist from the downslope
mid level flow. A weak front will move across late tonight
basically unnoticed outside of a subtle wind shift. Lows
Saturday morning should drop into the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
*No significant weather expected

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: A weak cold front will move through the area Saturday and
Saturday night with not much of an air mass change as moisture
levels likely won`t lower too much. Only low chances of
showers/storms into Saturday evening however due to limited
instability/forcing, mainly east of I-95 where moisture
convergence will be greatest. Can`t completely rule out a
stronger storm given the elevated DCAPE expected but the dry air
aloft should also limit overall storm coverage. Slightly cooler
and drier air will then eventually move in to round out the
weekend.

Temps should be a good bit above normal Saturday due to frontal
compression/ridging/lack of strong onshore winds, although not
quite as high as the 100+ degrees the low-level thicknesses
suggest. Dewpoints are a bit tricky as usual but we think the
hot temps and moderate humidity should yield heat indices peaking
near 100 degrees for most locales, especially in SC and in
areas away from the coast. However, this is still several
degrees shy of our Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees). Expect
a bit of a cooldown Sunday but temps are still forecast to be a
bit higher than normal, around 90 inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Highlights:
*No significant weather expected

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: A bit lower humidity is expected early next week as high
pressure prevails from the north with a slight moistening trend into
mid week. A coastal trough will likely develop near the coast mid
week and an upper trough should move in from the east helping spark
a few more showers/storms, especially on Thursday. Temps should
generally stay near normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Very quiet with VFR conditions expected through the forecast
period.

Extended Outlook...Generally VFR each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight: East to northeast winds around 15 knots appear
to be on the decline this morning via the past few observations
although they have seemingly held on a bit higher than
anticipated. A similar story with seas as they drifted to near
seven feet at one point at 41013. Should continue to see a
decrease with winds essentially becoming light and variable this
afternoon probably more sea breeze enhanced with more of a
synoptic southerly component into Saturday AM. Significant seas
drop to the lower end of a 2-4 foot range during the same time
frame.

Saturday through Tuesday...A weak cold front will move south through
the local waters Saturday and be followed by high pressure from the
north and northeast through early next week. Although winds/seas
will be elevated at times we do not anticipate conditions reaching
Small Craft Advisory levels.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents is
expected for all beaches today, mainly due to the south-
southeast 7-second swell. Lingering swells and onshore winds
should keep a moderate risk going for mainly the east- facing
beaches into early next week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...RJB/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ABW