Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
056 FXUS62 KILM 131648 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1248 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain north of the area while weak low pressure passes offshore Friday. A mainly dry cold front will move through Saturday followed by high pressure again from the north bringing temperatures and humidity down a bit for early next week. && .UPDATE... Showers developing just south of the Santee river should generally stay south of Winyah Bay, but this update will introduce a slight increase in PoP for this afternoon for extreme southeast Georgetown county. Any showers that develop could produce brief heavy rain. No additional changes with the 1 PM EDT update. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Overall quiet weather expected to continue through the near term forecast period under weak high pressure. Will be watching convection along a broad baroclinic zone well offshore but any guidance shower activity with this feature seems a bit bullish this far west citing the dry environment it will need to navigate. Highs today with a little more cloud cover to overcome will be in the upper 80s to near 90 inland. Lows Friday morning should check in around the middle to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Highlights: *No significant weather expected Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: Weak low pressure, likely non-tropical in nature, should not be too far offshore Friday before moving farther away to the northeast later in the day. On the backside of this low, a weak cold front should be approaching SE NC later Friday night. The front looks to move through the forecast area Saturday, although won`t be bringing much of an air mass change as dewpoints likely won`t lower too much. Rain chances will remain limited due to the lack of moisture/forcing. Temps should be a good bit above normal due to more offshore flow Friday and frontal compression/ridging Saturday. Highs Friday should be in the lower to mid 90s most locales with heat indices peaking not too much hotter as we expect dewpoints to lower/mix out a bit during the day. However, it will be hotter and a bit more humid Saturday with highs mostly in the mid 90s (possibly a few upper 90s near the Pee Dee/Lowcountry) and peak heat indices near 100 degrees for much of the area. Fortunately, such heat indices are below our Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees) but still expect a pretty muggy day. And there won`t be much relief each night with lows near/above 70 most places. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Highlights: *No significant weather expected Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: A bit more comfortable weather is expected early next week as high pressure prevails from the north. Although a coastal trough could develop late in the period moisture will be rather limited and thus not much rain is expected. Temps should generally stay near normal through the period. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR this afternoon with a mix of cumulus and upper level clouds along the coast. Gusts up to 20 knots possible along the coast in onshore flow today. Light winds back this evening, becoming NE. Onshore flow and boundary layer moisture advection will continue this evening which may bring MVFR stratus to the Grand Strand prior to 06Z. Drier air moves in as N winds surge after 06Z. Clear skies, VFR, and hot on Friday with a slight chance of a shower along the coast during the afternoon. Extended Outlook...Generally VFR each day. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...East to slightly northeast winds will continue across the waters between weak high pressure inland and a broad baroclinic zone well offshore. Speeds will be 15-20 knots today and decrease somewhat by Friday morning. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet with a few five footers mixed in later today and this evening coinciding with the stronger winds. Friday through Monday...Weak low pressure, likely non-tropical in nature, will be situated not too far to the east of the Carolina coast to start the period. The low should move away to the northeast later Friday and be followed by a weak cold front which should move through Saturday. High pressure will then build in from the north for early next week. Although winds/seas will be elevated at times we do not anticipate conditions reaching Small Craft Advisory levels. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...21 NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...21 MARINE...RJB/SHK