099
FXUS62 KILM 181028
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
628 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain-free and seasonably warm conditions for much of this week
as high pressure maintains influence over the area. Warming
trend and diurnal storms forecasted for next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Strong subsidence remains in place today with 5h ridge overhead
this morning before it drifts slowly north-northwest later
today into tonight. Elongated surface high remains off the New
England coast, keeping onshore flow in place. Once again the
strong mid-level subsidence will keep the region dry with
minimal cloud cover. Temperatures will be moderated by onshore
flow. Although a strong mid-level subsidence inversion is in
place, the core of the warmth under the ridging aloft shifts
northwest, allowing temperatures to moderate compared to
yesterday. Expect temperatures to be about 1-3 degrees cooler
today and tonight compared to the previous 24 hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging and subsidence will maintain dry weather and seasonable
warmth through Thursday. Deep easterly flow through the short
term as the upper ridge oriented southwest-northeast on
Wednesday becomes horizontal overhead Thursday, while low level
ridge remains centered to the northeast. Plenty of sunshine both
days with only scattered diurnal cumulus each afternoon beneath
the subsidence inversion. High temps near 90F inland and mid
80s across coastal counties, with low temps in the mid 60s at
night (with near 70F low close to the coast with onshore flow).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low level trough, possibly low pressure center, is now
forecasted to move west near GA/SC border on Friday, with bulk
of the moisture remaining south of the area. Ridge and
associated subsidence looks to maintain influence across the CWA
on Friday and have lowered pops accordingly, with only low pops
remaining along the coast. As low level ridge center shifts
further to the east, and upper ridge center westward as a trough
moves across the northern U.S., subsidence loses its hold and
return flow is progged to develop for next weekend. This will
lead to a slight warming trend and chance for diurnal convection
through next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR continues with skies generally SKC during the next 24
hours. Easterly winds continue today and tonight with gusts
around 20 kt mid-morning through later afternoon. Boundary layer
remains mixed overnight and low level dry air will limit any
stratus to FEW/SCT.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Extended period of onshore flow continues
today as elongated high remains off the New England coast.
Easterly winds 10-15 kt will continue pushing higher seas closer
to shore which, coupled with extended period of easterly fetch,
will lead to seas greater than speeds would suggest. Widespread
4 ft seas today and tonight with occasional 5 ft away from
shore. An easterly wave of 6-7 seconds will be the dominant
wave.

Wednesday through Saturday...Easterly onshore flow persists
through Friday with high pressure centered to the northeast.
Winds 15-20 kts Wednesday through Thursday before weakening
slightly on Friday as a trough or low pressure system passes
south of the area. Winds turn southerly on Saturday. Seas 4-5 ft
Wednesday through Thursday, with 6 footers possible out near 20
nm from the coast, due to elevated 9 second E swell. Wave
heights will be lowering on Friday, further decreasing to 2-3 ft
on Saturday, as easterly swell weakens. Overnight showers and
isolated thunderstorms possible over the coastal waters Thursday
and Friday nights.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: A building easterly swell will maintain
an elevated rip current risk for east and southeast facing
beaches in our area through (at least) the end of the week. A
high risk of rip currents is forecasted for Pender, New Hanover
and Georgetown county beaches Wednesday through Friday, with
moderate rip risk for Horry County. The south facing beaches of
Brunswick county (east of Ocean Isle) will likely have strong
east to west longshore currents these days due to easterly swell
and winds versus strong rip currents.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ110.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/VAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VAO