076
FXUS61 KILN 151756
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
156 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring nearly seasonal temperatures to start
the weekend. But then heat will build for next week. Highs will
be in the 90s all week with lows in the 70s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will move off to
the east today. This will result in dry conditions and highs
near normal (lower to mid 80s). Just some thin cirrus is
expected to spill into our region from the northwest, especially
across northern counties this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Ridging at the surface and aloft will keep a very dry airmass
across the region with just some thin high clouds at most.
Temperatures will be able to drop into the mid 50s to lower 60s
tonight, but there will be a large diurnal range as readings
will soar into the lower 90s on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Sunday night will be the start of the prolonged stretch of very
mild overnight lows, primarily in the 70s.

H5 height rises will lead to a large heat dome that builds over
much of the eastern CONUS as we progress into the next work
week. Across portions of the Ohio Valley, ECMWF/GFS ensembles
suggest H5 height anomalies exceeding 2 sigma by the middle of
the week. Underneath this ridge, a stagnant, hot and humid air
mass will remain in place through the entirety of the work week.
The primary uncertainty with this regime is the exact placement
of the high pressure system, which could play a role on storm
potential. Even as the region of high pressure expands through
the middle of the week, some global models still try to initiate
some showers/storms, likely diurnally driven from the unstable
air mass that will be in place. This could certainly moderate
daytime highs on any particular day. However, without any
convection, we will observe highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s
each day next week.

Given the prolonged stretch of hot daytime highs and very mild
overnight lows, the experimental HeatRisk product does suggest
anywhere from major to extreme heat-related impacts. This
indicates that the prolonged heat will affect anyone (not just
those that are normally sensitive) without effective cooling and
adequate hydration. Additionally, most days will observe heat
indices near or exceeding 100 degrees across our CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Surface high pressure centered across the Great Lakes and
extending southward into the Ohio Valley will move east tonight.
As this occurs, a mid level ridge will build east/north into
the middle Ohio Valley tonight. For Sunday, the mid level ridge
axis will shift slightly east. Winds from the northeast and east
near 10 knots today, east between 5 and 10 knots tonight, and
becoming southerly 5 to 10 knots on Sunday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...Hickman