019
FXUS61 KILN 212345
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
745 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm conditions will continue through Sunday. A cold front will
move through the region Sunday night into Monday, bringing more
seasonable temperatures for the start of the work week. This
will also result in episodic chances for showers and
thunderstorms through Tuesday, with a great deal of uncertainty
in the forecast for the latter half of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Satellite imagery shows a fair amount of thicker high clouds
that will pass across the Tri-State through the evening but then
should thin out later in the night. Drier low level airmass may
not make it all of the way through the forecast area, so some
valley fog is possible near and south of the Ohio River.
Forecast temperatures still look reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The drier air entrenched across the region tonight into Sunday
morning will be shunted to the E into the afternoon, with a
fairly pronounced dewpoint gradient expected to go along with it
as some richer LL moisture advects in from the W during the
afternoon. But it will take some effort to truly moisten the
profile, with an expectation that an approaching band of SHRA,
with embedded TS, will erode with eastward extent. The SHRA may
initially be falling from a deck at about 8-10kft, with quite a
bit of dry air to overcome in the LL. This is shown well even on
the typically more moisture-robust guidance, with a rather
deep layer of dry air in the bottom 8-10kft to overcome,
especially during the onset. So while there will most certainly
be some virga and perhaps some sprinkles, the prospect of
appreciable measurable rainfall drops off rather abruptly near/E
of I-75 Sunday afternoon.

With some more expansive cloud cover moving in during the
afternoon from the W, temps on Sunday will be warmest in the E
(lower 90s), with mid 80s favored near/W of I-75.

An additional S/W will move into the region Sunday evening
through early Sunday night, but will again encounter an
increasingly-unfavorable environment locally (after sunset) with
eastward extent. So more of the same is on tap Sunday
evening/night, wherein approaching SHRA/TSRA from the W should
decrease in coverage with eastward extent, providing little more
than perhaps a brief period of RA (and generally less than a
tenth of any inch) for any one location. While there still
should be /some/ precip Sunday evening/night for many locales,
the SCT nature of the activity lends itself to PoPs being
trimmed rather significantly from previous fcst cycles,
generally topping out at only 50-60%.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A more active pattern will be in place for the long term.  Models
continue to be in general agreement through Wednesday with more
variability beyond that time.  While there is at least some rainfall
potential throughout the long term, the greatest likelihood of
precipitation is Monday and especially Tuesday.  Breezy conditions
are also expected on Tuesday.  Kept the model blend low end pops for
beyond Wednesday with greater uncertainty in place.  With
precipitation chances and increased cloud cover during the extended,
temperatures will be lower than what has been in place.  High
temperatures in many locations will be in the 70s with some 80s also
possible southeast of Interstate 71 on Monday.  Lows will be in the
50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Could see some fog reduce visibility at KLUK overnight.
Otherwise VFR is forecast to prevail. Expect mainly high to mid
clouds through the period. Light and variable winds overnight
will become southerly in the morning and eventually more
westerly with some speeds to around 10 kt late in the period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...