965
FXUS61 KILN 180605
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
205 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system over the southern
Appalachians will slowly migrate to the east today. High
pressure and dry weather will then persist into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The center of an upper level low over the southern Appalachians
will move very slowly to the southeast tonight. Clouds will
continue to affect much of the forecast area from this system,
with any light shower activity essentially diminishing
overnight. Lows will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
Have held a chance of showers in our southeast Wednesday as the
low slowly weakens. Clouds will continue to offer slightly
cooler afternoon temperatures in this area. Otherwise, partly to
mostly cloudy skies will continue with warm afternoon highs in
the lower 80s.

Guidance continues to show a decreasing trend in the clouds and
PoPs Wednesday night. This will cause more efficient
radiational cooling conditions leading to lows dipping into the
upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains in place over the northeastern CONUS
through Saturday night. This synoptic setup will allow for dry
conditions and above average temperatures to persist across the
Ohio Valley. Forecast highs remain in the 80s. Forecast lows
through the end of the week range from near 60 Thursday night to
the lower 60s by Saturday night.

The surface high is expected to shift further east by Sunday
into the start of next week. Winds are forecast to take on a
more southwesterly direction as this occurs. This shift in wind
direction may allow a subtle increase in moisture across the
Ohio Valley although rain chances remain less than 30% each day
due to lack of forcing. Unless a low pressure system forms in
the Plains, it may be difficult to squeeze out any widespread
rainfall despite above average PWATs next week. Above average
temperatures likely continue.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper level low pressure system centered over the southern
Appalachians will slowly migrate east through the TAF period.
A few light rain showers or sprinkles from a VFR cloud deck
will decrease in coverage early this morning. Any lingering
light showers will be relegated southeast of the TAF/s during
the daylight hours. VFR conditions will prevail with ceilings
scattering out this afternoon and skies clearing this evening.

Some river valley fog will be possible at KLUK tonight. For now
have a mention of MVFR vsby restrictions thru 06Z.

Winds to remain from the east to northeast between 5 and 10
knots.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...AR