549
FXUS61 KILN 160143
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
943 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong mid level ridge will develop across the eastern U.S.
for the beginning of the week. Some weak disturbances rotating
around the western periphery of this ridge may bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms to parts of the area Monday into
Tuesday. Otherwise, the mid level ridge is forecast to build
westward into the Ohio Valley through the remainder of the week.
Hot and humid conditions will be the main theme for the
upcoming week with highs mainly in the 90s and lows in the 70s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Tranquil conditions will persist locally through the near term
period as some cirrus drifts E through the region amidst
otherwise clear skies. Light easterly flow will be maintained
within an unseasonably dry airmass (PWAT around 0.62," per the
16.00Z KILN RAOB), allowing for temps to dip rapidly from early
evening readings back into the upper 50s to around 60 degrees
by daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Mid level ridging will extend into the region on Sunday.
Although low level flow becomes southerly, advancing/increasing
dewpoints will be slowed somewhat due to some dry air aloft and
diurnal mixing. So although temperatures will warm into the
upper 80s to the lower 90s, heat index values will remain mostly
close to the air temperature.

For Sunday night, the center of the mid level ridge will become
centered over the mid Atlantic. Our area will be on the western
periphery of this high, which will allow for some weak
disturbances to rotate north. This will bring some clouds for
Sunday night. Lows will only fall into the upper 60s to the
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An anomalously strong and large high pressure at the surface
and aloft will be the dominant feature of this period. Hot
temperatures will be prevalent, though moisture advecting around
the periphery of the high will complicate the picture as
potential clouds and precip compete against insolation.

For Monday, ample moisture advection coupled with surface
heating will produce CAPE around 3000 J/KG, allowing scattered
thunderstorms to develop. Though winds aloft will be weak,
downpours will be possible from an environment containing nearly
2 inches PWAT, while tall cumulonimbus could produce isolated
downbursts. More of the same will be possible on Tuesday, though
warmer air aloft may limit convective potential somewhat. More
warming aloft coupled with slightly drier low levels suggest
mainly dry weather Wednesday through Saturday.

Hot temperatures are the main concern, with forecast highs in
the low and mid 90s Monday through Wednesday rising to the mid
and upper 90s for Thursday through Saturday. Lows in the 70s are
expected each day. Heat indices are likely to be around 100
each day. The duration of this hot pattern and the very warm
readings at night will exacerbate the effects, and heat
headlines cannot be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. FEW/SCT
cirrus will slowly drift away from the terminals toward/beyond
06z, leaving mostly clear to clear skies into early afternoon. A
FEW cirrus will once again overspread from the SW by/beyond 18z.
Very little, if any, diurnally-driven VFR Cu is expected, owing
to continue dry conditions in the LL profile.

Light erly winds at 5kts or less will be maintained through
daybreak before going more out of the SE by 15z and becoming
southerly/southwesterly at 6-8kts or less toward/beyond 18z.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...KC