Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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714 FXUS61 KILN 011743 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 143 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure will track through the region overnight into Sunday. Rain showers will embedded thunderstorms will accompany this system. High pressure will briefly return later Sunday into Monday offering dry weather. An unsettled pattern is expected from Tuesday through the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Cirrus streaming across the area is mainly thin, so there is a fair bit of sun this morning. Thicker clouds will spread in just ahead of the precipitation that will start spreading in mid to later afternoon, which will be mostly showers, not that a bit of embedded thunder could not occur. Forecast highs looking reasonable at this point. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Mid level shortwave and weak surface low to track thru the region overnight into Sunday. Axis of rain showers to pivot thru the area overnight. Instability is marginal so thunder threat is limited and mainly across the south. Rainfall is expected to be between a quarter and a half inch. Mild temperatures with forecast lows in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Showers will be ongoing early Sunday as weakening shortwave continues to push off to the east. Main area of precipitation will diminish from west to east but can not rule out re- development of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm with lingering boundary in the afternoon. High temperatures to range from the lower 70s to the middle 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper ridge will strengthen slightly through Monday and then be undercut by shortwave energy entering from the west. Rain, possibly thunderstorms will begin Tuesday and become more prolific later in the day as the ridge breaks down and more s/w energy crosses the CWA. Showers and thunderstorms continue to remain a possibility overnight with an uptick expected to occur before daybreak Wednesday as another s/w passes east over the CWA. Models show large differences in the pattern evolution beyond this time, but do concur on afternoon storms decreasing/ending overnight from w-e. Expect that they will end before midnight for an essentially dry overnight, however NBM was much more bullish on this decrease and persisted activity, ramping it back up during the day Thursday as a cutoff upper low settles over the northern Great Lakes region. Activity is being shown to cut off overnight, likely due to dry air wrapping around the low. Another ramp up in pops on Friday with the low tracking closer towards northern Ohio and cold pool overturning expected. The proximity of the low keeps at least chance pops in through the remainder of the forecast. Temps Sun night/Mon will be above normal with lows near 60 and highs in the lower 80s, increasing to be 5-8 degrees above climo overnight Mon and Tuesday with lows near 65 and highs from the low 80s in the west to upper 80s in the east. This rising trend in temps only lingers through Tuesday night when lows are solidly 10 deg above normal in the upper 60s. Cloud cover and expected precip knock down temperatures from Wednesday onward, ending with Friday highs in the mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR will continue through the early part of the TAF period. Showers will spread into the region after 23Z but gradually become less organized as they spread northeast overnight. Conditions will initially stay VFR as showers begin, but lower levels will moisten resulting in ceilings falling below 2kft as well as with some MVFR visibilities. While precipitation will diminish overnight, persistent low level moisture will likely result in ceilings falling to IFR towards or even a bit after 12Z. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceiling will occur Sunday afternoon and could possibly linger into Sunday night and Monday morning. Thunderstorms possible Tuesday through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...