Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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447 FXUS61 KILN 201940 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 340 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warm temperatures to continue today with a few showers or storms returning Tuesday. The next widespread chance for showers and storms is likely Wednesday into Thursday with the approach and passage of a cold front. Slightly cooler conditions are in store for the end of workweek, although there may be additional chances for showers and storms Friday into the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Mid level ridge axis to continue settling slightly south and east. Shortwave over WI to dampen out as it tracks thru the Great Lakes around the periphery of the ridge this evening. Most of the area will remain dry with an isold shower or storm clipping the far northern counties into the early evening. Scattered diurnally driven cumulus clouds will wane with sunset. Another shortwave over the Mid MS Valley to pivot thru the area overnight. Expect to see some high and mid level clouds with this feature. Can not rule out a shower spilling into the west overnight but have continued a dry forecast going with the consensus. Another warm and humid overnight period with temps dipping into the lower and mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Another warm day is on tap for the area Tuesday. Mid level shortwave tracks east of the area in the morning with some minor height rises in its wake. Temperatures to generally top out in the upper 80s. An isolated 90 degree reading is possible at the typical warm spots. While there will be slight chance for a few afternoon or evening showers or thunderstorms across ILN/s northern counties most locations will remain dry. Mid level ridging should keep most of Tuesday night dry. As flow backs ahead of trof have allowed for slight chance pops into the west late. Mild lows in the upper 60s to around 70. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... An active long term period is expected with multiple systems moving through the region. There will be the potential for ongoing weakening convection at the start of the day on Wednesday. As is typical, how quickly this precipitation decreases and how widespread it is will have an impact on convective development during the afternoon hours. There is expected to be some thunderstorm development during the afternoon hours and then continuing into the evening and overnight as a cold front continues to approach and move into the region. Damaging winds will be the primary threat along with heavy rain and subsequent flooding potential. In addition, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The front lingers and lays out across the region on Thursday keeping the chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Models are finally coming more into line for Friday with additional moisture working into the area from the south and bringing additional thunderstorms. While the details still need to be resolved, models continue with an active weather pattern through the weekend and into Memorial Day. With the stormy pattern temperatures will be dependent on convection, however in general expect high temperatures in the 70s and 80s through the long term. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Surface and ridging aloft will offer VFR conditions this afternoon into this evening. Fair weather cumulus clouds between 4-5ft will develop again today before dissipating early this evening. As a shortwave tracks thru the Great Lakes scattered convection will affect northern Ohio with coverage of showers/storms expected to remain north of the TAF sites. Some MVFR valley fog may affect KLUK overnight with all other TAF sites remaining VFR overnight. Cumulus clouds and high level clouds to develop across the area Tuesday. Coverage of any convection is too low to mention in the TAF forecast Tuesday. Southwest winds at less than 10 kts will become light southerly at 5kts or less overnight and than southwest around 10 kts Tuesday. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely at times Wednesday into Thursday morning. MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities to linger into Thursday. Additional chances for thunderstorms are possible Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM... AVIATION...AR