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000
FXUS61 KILN 210532
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
132 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will lead to dry but cool conditions through the
weekend. Temperatures will moderate somewhat by Monday before a
chance of showers returns for Tuesday into Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Northwest to west flow aloft with surface high pressure
centered to our west over the Central Plains with a weak ridge
axis extending east into the Ohio Valley.

Low level moisture over the southern Great Lakes will continue
to stream across areas along and north of I-70 thru the night.

Meanwhile, mid and high level clouds off to our southwest will
advect into our area overnight. This will all lead to an overall
increase in clouds through the night across our area and this
should help steady out temperatures. With these cloud trends in
mind have adjusted temperatures slightly warmer.

Given these cloud and temperature trends - have less confidence
in the formation of fog. Have kept frost advisory over the far
northeast counties but have trimmed back mention of frost
outside of this advisory.

Overnight lows will be mostly in the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A mid/upper level trough axis will shift southeast across our
area through Sunday afternoon. With the 850 mb cold pool still
centered over us Sunday morning and some lingering low level
moisture, will allow for some diurnal cu to develop through mid
to late morning and then linger some of this into the afternoon.
These clouds should then dissipate through late afternoon get
on the backside of the upper level trough and start to lose the
diurnal heating. Temperatures will remain seasonably cool with
highs on Sunday only in the mid to possibly upper 50s. Clearing
skies and light winds will lead to frost potential across much
of the area Sunday night as temperatures drop into the the low
to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Period begins dry on Monday with high pressure draped across
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. An intensifying low pressure
and cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday,
while winds outside of storms may gust over 30 knots. High
pressure returns with dry weather for Wednesday and Thursday.
Showers and thunderstorms may accompany a warm front on Friday.
A better chance for showers and storms may exist on Saturday as
a warm and unstable regime takes hold south of low pressure
tracking across the Great Lakes.

Temperatures range normal to slightly below normal for much of
the period, with highs generally in the 60s Monday through
Friday. Being situated in the warm sector Saturday should allow
above normal highs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A surface high pressure ridge will remain across the Ohio
Valley through the TAF period. Despite the high, a mid level
disturbance will bring an increase in VFR stratocumulus/cumulus
as well as a period of mid and high level clouds. Winds will be
from the northwest around 5 knots, increasing between 10 and 15
knots around 15Z with local gusts up to 20 knots.

For tonight, once the mid level disturbance passes by to the
southeast and diurnal cooling begins, clouds will decrease with
mainly clear skies expected overnight. Winds will decrease and
become light west/northwest to 5 knots or less.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities possible
Tuesday. Gusty winds to 30 knots possible Tuesday. MVFR ceilings
may linger into Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for OHZ026-045-046-
     055-056-065-074.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Hickman